The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Trade tensions. Climate change. Austan D. Goolsbee, the Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth, and Dali L. Yang, William Claude Reavis Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago, dove into these topics and more in a wide-ranging virtual discussion, Economics: East and West.
Simulcast in Chicago on February 24 and in Hong Kong on February 25, Economics: East and West kicked off the 2021 program for A Meeting of the Minds: Business and the Human, the event series cosponsored by Chicago Booth and the Stevanovich Institute on the Formation of Knowledge at the University of Chicago. Now in its third year, the series brings together scholars and professionals across a broad range of disciplines to provide a more nuanced understanding of how economics interacts with and shapes culture and society. In his opening remarks, UChicago president Robert J. Zimmer noted that the series “strives to examine fundamental issues regarding business and commerce, and how these issues can be seen not only from the perspective of business and economics, but also through the lens of culture and humanistic inquiry.”
Joshua Cooper Ramo, AB ’92, chairman and CEO of Sornay, a privately held advisory and principal investment firm, moderated the lively hour-long conversation. Watch the video below or scroll to read key takeaways from the event.
Robert Zimmer:
I am very pleased to welcome all of you to the latest event in the series Meeting of the Minds: Business and the Human. This series strives to examine fundamental issues regarding business and commerce, and how these issues can be seen, not only from the perspective of business and economics, but also through the lens of culture and humanistic inquiry. This series is a joint project of the Booth School of Business and the Stevanovich Institute on the Formation of Knowledge. I want to express my appreciation to Madhav Rajan, Dean of the Booth School and Shadi Bartsch, Director of the Stevanovich Institute and professor in the classics department, for working together to establish this series.
To me, this series is not only interesting and intellectually provocative, but it captures something essential about the University of Chicago: namely, the need to examine complex issues through multiple lenses, understanding different perspectives, and examining assumptions are all part of the nature of rigorous and challenging inquiry that characterizes the university's work in education and research across the full scope of our work. Today's discussion is titled Economics East and West. Dean Rajan will formally introduce the panelists and the moderator in a moment. But since in this case, they were all good friends of mine, I want to express my personal thanks to Professor Austan Goolsbee, Professor Yang Dali, and to our well-known alum of the college, Joshua Cooper Ramo for participating today. It is good to see each of you and welcome back, Joshua. Now I will pass the proceedings to Madhav, who will introduce the panel and moderator.
Madhav Rajan:
Thank you, President Zimmer. Hello everyone, depending on where you are, good evening or good morning. As Bob said, my name is Madhav Rajan. I'm Dean of Chicago Booth and the George Shultz Professor of Accounting. On behalf of the Booth School and the University of Chicago Stevanovich Institute on the Formation of Knowledge, it is my distinct pleasure to welcome all of you to Meeting of the Minds: Business and the Human. I'm thrilled to introduce today's very distinguished panel.
Austan Goolsbee is the Robert Gwinn Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth. He served in Washington as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and a member of the president's cabinet. His research has learned him recognition as a Fulbright Scholar and a Sloan fellow. He was previously named one of the 100 Global Leaders of Tomorrow by the World Economic Forum and one of the six Gurus of the Future by the Financial Times. Austan's ability to explain economics clearly has made him incredibly popular in the media. John Stewart described them as Eliot Ness meets Milton Friedman and Austan has twice been named a star professor by Business Week's Guide to the Best Business Schools. Thank you very much, Austan, for being with us.
Austan Goolsbee:
Thank you.
Madhav Rajan:
Dali Yang is a Senior Advisor to the President and the Provost at the University on Global Initiatives. In this role, Dali helps to develop and implement the university's global strategy and initiatives in education, research and collaboration to create and sustain international opportunities for our faculty and students with special focus on China and the rest of East Asia. Dali is the William Claude Reavis professor in the Department of Political Sciences and the College and between 2010 and June 2016, he was the founding faculty director of the University of Chicago Center in Beijing, a university wide initiative to promote collaboration and exchange. He's also a non-resident senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Thank you Dali for being here.
Dali Yang:
Thank you.
Madhav Rajan:
Welcome. Our moderator is UChicago alum, as Bob mentioned, Joshua Cooper Ramo, Chairman and CEO of Sornay, a privately held advisory and principal investment firm. Joshua served as Lead China Advisor on more than $200 billion worth of completed transactions and led investments alongside China's most significant commercial and financial players. Prior to this, Joshua was CEO and Vice Chairman of Kissinger Associates for 15 years and before that foreign editor and senior editor of Time Magazine. He's the author of two New York Times bestselling books that have been translated into more than 20 languages each, The Age of the Unthinkable and The Seventh Sense. Thank you, Joshua, for moderating today's discussion titled Economics East and West, and please take it away.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
Thanks so much. It's a pleasure to be here and great to be with you all. I thought since we are having part of the hosting of this done by the Stevanovich Institute for the Formation of Knowledge and because of the fine University of Chicago tradition of kind of digging deep into the roots of things before you begin thinking about where you're going to go in the future, that we might begin by trying to provide a little context about the idea of economics in these two different hemispheres. Dali, I thought maybe I would start with you. As you look back in history, if you were kind of to ground or to sort of chart the progress of the notion of economics as a political act, as a political responsibility, what important elements of that would you highlight as we begin to think about where we [cuts off].
Dali Yang:
Well, in many ways the first thought, occurs to me when I think of the question you have asked is how modern the economic institutions are. For example, the Central Bank system did not exist until the early 20th century, so before then, currencies in China and in many other parts of the world were based, for example, on precious metals and so on. But at the same time, in the Chinese case, in terms of the traditional governance, the emphasis was on scholars learning Confucian ideas in particular, passing exams, becoming paid to lead the country, and of course the economy happens to be a part of it. But at the same time however, there has been this emphasis in the Chinese tradition to really value scholarly wisdom and so on, but at the same time downgrading to some extent the importance of commercial transactions, even while China in fact, was one of the first societies to have adopted paper currency and so on.
So it was a mixed record and partly because in fact, again, it was pre-modern in many ways. So there were a set of established practices, but at the same time, they were limited at actually systematic thinking about the economy, about how the economy interact with institutions, and how in fact, globally it was interconnected. In fact, until relatively recently, the Chinese economy of course was connected globally, but at the same time was also limited. Especially in the Ching Dynasty, there was a lot of emphasis on restricting global interactions.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I think that that's an important and significant point. As we look at Asia, we understand the tremendous amount of economic growth that's going to come out of that region over the next 20 or 25 years. But understanding also that [cut off] many of the economics ideas that have roots in things that are essential to the Enlightenment process, Industrial Revolution process, the scientific revolution. All those things were imports in a sense into Asia. Also, maybe on that note, it's a good place to kind of switch to the Western perspective where the development of an economic philosophy, a way of thinking about the world to some degree did run hand in hand with the process of the Enlightenment and the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution. How do you look at the history of economics and what are the sort of significant milestones as we prepare ourselves to look for the future?
Austan Goolsbee:
These are all deep questions, and it's fully what I expected when you said we're going to start at the beginning, I was like, "Oh no, we're going to... It's the Peloponnesian War. I got to go to renew what did we learn at the University of Chicago?” I guess, I would split it, the history of the economics, and the history of the economy. Now, on the economy, the way the US got to be the richest country of all the major economies of the world, it kind of followed a process. First, endowed by tons of natural resources, so for the early and mid-development of the US economy was heavily resource based. Not unlike kind of a South Africa model, Australia model, or something like that, Chile, Argentina. Having the largest open market in the world in the trade that could take place within the United States, which they consciously set up in the Constitution that there could be no tariffs on trade between the states, proved remarkably important for the history of the economy in the US. And then coming into the 20th century, massive investments, partly prodded by the government and partly prodded by individuals themselves, of infrastructure, technology, science, and vastly—rapid and vast improvement at educational attainment of just the everyday workforce in the United States.
Those are the things that kind of put us on the path on the economy. Within economics, we've kind of been up, down, turned around sideways and crises always lead to academic crises of the, what are we doing, and are we all on the wrong page? So I'd say, we could talk about the economics profession summit if you want, but we kind of went from a historical early to mid 20th century, heavily laissez-faire doctrine, kind of being really the only viable economic philosophy coming out of the profession to macro going into very different directions. Then coming into the 21st century, heavy emphasis on behavioral economics and incorporating some of the insights of psychology into economics and massive increase in the use of data and the prominence of micro economics kind of as paramount in the field rather than macro. They've diverged a little, but I do think how the economy has gone has gone hand in hand with how the economics profession has.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I mean, that's an interesting way to begin maybe to bridge to the present day because we're obviously in the midst of a very intense and lively debate between different groups in the US, sophisticated economists, well-trained Nobel Prize winners on either side with different points of view about what the right way forward is. I guess maybe the question I would ask is as you examine this as an economist, from an academic perspective, do you feel like the problems ahead of us are tractable problems? Are they analyzable problems or are we in new territory here? And then maybe to also add on your policymaker hat, how do you adjust for that? How do you deal with a world in which there are some things that are a little bit outside the bars of what any model has predicted?
Austan Goolsbee:
Yeah, right. Some of both, and if you—the more out of the...Before there ever was COVID, my contention was that one of the biggest problems that we were facing in the United States was a mindset that viewed, we just need to wait for everything to get back to normal, and they were defining normal as what it was like in 2005, and 2005 was the thing that was not normal. There's a raging housing bubble, there's all these strange things going on. I just kept saying, if you're waiting for the 2005 bus to come back and pick you up and return you to Normal-ville, you're actually hitchhiking, and you don't know that yet, because there is no bus. That bus is done. Now, the COVID experience, I think, has made that even more true, because this is a business cycle, a recession and a recovery, unlike anything we've seen before. It's caused by something that has nothing to do with the economy.
What sectors are hit are a bunch of sectors that we always thought were recession proof. In the big rich economies, the advanced Western economies, they're dominated by service sectors: the healthcare economy, personal services, leisure and entertainment, travel and tourism. All of this stuff is 75%, 80% of the US economy, and it usually doesn't go down in a recession, and then COVID strikes and everybody says, "Well, I don't want to go to the Bears game." I mean, they didn't want to go to the Bear game before, so I'll pick a different one. I'm not going to go to the gym. I'm not going to go out to a restaurant. I'm not going to go to the office until COVID passes. You've seen the tension, which is kind of behind the premise of your question of leading economists and leading policymakers trying to jam the current experience into the model that was fitted to data from business cycles that have nothing to do with this. They're making predictions like how fast will we come back? Will there be inflation from this comeback? All of which are based on what did the numbers show in 1975 or 1995. I think we got to do some soul-searching, because it's clear that those models don't work.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I mean, it strikes me as that's what's interesting about this discussion about the economics and the economists, which is that-
Austan Goolsbee:
Yes.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
... the cognitive model you show up with matters when it is time to make policy. As you pointed, I think all of us and you'd hope people understand, we're living in an age where we're well outside the bands on so many things. Things are moving faster. There's a degree of interconnection and it's, from a policy perspective, obviously a fascinating challenge. Both East and West, I guess, in that sense are confronting things that haven't been seen before. Dali, maybe that's a good place to turn to and I mean, China has achieved something that's never been achieved in human history, which is the elevation of hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, rapid industrialization, incredibly rapid shift to an information-based economy.
I mean, I can tell you as somebody who's lived and worked in China since 2002, I was there in November and December just this past year, it's a different country than it was a year ago. COVID, if the logic you hear is that COVID was fundamentally an accelerator for things that were already underway, it accelerated people watching movies at home and video conferencing and online shopping and maybe accelerated US-China tensions, it accelerated Chinese domestic demand. It's certainly accelerated the emergence of a new consciousness, but now they are now about to continue to attempt something that's never been done before in history. What Xi Jinping has called moving into the deep waters of reform. Where does the economic model fit there? What can we learn from the kind of political ecology of the kinds of people who are thinking about the economy? One of the striking statistics I always have in mind is that in 1981, the average education of a Provincial Party secretary in China was a fifth grade education.
When I was there in December, I saw a Provincial Party secretary [inaudible], which is what most of them have. There obviously was a tremendous kind of intellectual surplus that could be caught, but it still doesn't help you when you're dealing with something that's never been seen before in human history. Dali, what's your analysis of how that's [inaudible]?
Dali Yang:
Well, first of all, in many ways China on the one hand, of course, had fumbled with the initial outbreak in Wuhan, but at the same time, as we can see, in fact, the Chinese leadership responded. When finally it was convinced this was a new novel disease that was highly contagious, they took a very decisive decision to lock down 11 million people. But part of the reason is that in fact, many of those people, and I have been studying it quite a bit actually in recent months, was that they dealt with SARS, including President Xi Jinping himself. So in many ways it's the same people, in fact, who handled SARS in 2003, who had the memories of it, who actually in 2003 were quarantining thousands of people, deciding to do the same but a much larger scale this time.
But at the same time, as you rightfully pointed out, in many ways, actually China's economy in 2003—China had only recently joined the WTO at that time—the Chinese economy was on a much smaller scale, but at the same time however, now it's a $14, $15 trillion economy in a way that of course this significance has been felt. But my sense is in this context, in many ways, the Chinese leadership gradually very quickly steadied and the way it handled the economy and also the pandemic actually speaks volumes about how China differs from China in 2003, let alone going further back, is that at that point in 2003, China was on the receiving end of WHO travel advisories, and in fact basically felt deeply troubled by what was going on. Really apologize to the neighboring countries and so on for what had happened. This time, in fact, the Chinese leadership really took a very different tune. They decisively intervened by January 20, but at the same time, they also took an extraordinarily strong stand in terms of analyzing, dealing with the virus and also taking a global stand as well.
So I think in many ways, actually they intertwined the public house aspect with the economic management and with their sense of how to manage the economy. Of course, as we all know, and going back to the issue of economics profession and also governance is that the Chinese leadership actually on the one hand, we listen to Milton Friedman, who visited Beijing in 1988, but at the same time, we kept a respectful distance. Also—trying to view—keeping the state sector strong, investing in key sectors. I think actually we are even more convinced that that's what we need to do. But at the same time however, the rest of the world is changing. Its reactions to China is changing as well and that means actually in certain sectors, for example, especially in innovation, semiconductors, and so on, we are going to see much intense interactions in many ways going forward. I think that's a lot to say about how the Chinese leadership sees it and as part of it is in terms of bringing China into a fully modernized economy and, that's globally strong and of course, presumably on their account is going to be larger than the US economy.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
An element of that, Dali, obviously is trying to get as large [inaudible] as possible. One of the things we know from history is that having the middle class is an incredibly stabilizing thing. I mean, that was a great lesson of the 19th century that Bismarck and Israeli and others understood is that once people got in the middle class, they don't want a revolution. They don't want to burn down the house that they've just bought. You almost define it, not simply in economic terms or income terms but say, you're sort of in the middle class if you think your kid's life is going to be better than your life, and you have that kind of optimism about the future. And certainly that's something we see expanding a lot in China. How do you feel about that progression? I think it's maybe also a way to link a question that is probably interesting, which is, what's the right balance between economics as a source of legitimacy for a political system and other issues?
Dali Yang:
Well, I think the key is to keep in mind that this remains the Communist Party in power, and in fact, their leadership, in fact, is launching a new campaign to really guide members of the Communist Party to learn about party history. And in this case, actually, always keeping in mind issues, not just actually of economic growth, but also issues of distribution and of justice. In many ways, actually, if you look back and as you know very well, part of it is really enabling Chinese families to own properties. For example, 90% of Chinese families own some property, much higher percentage now than in the US. Of course, the land is a separate issue, but at the same time, over the last... in 2015 President Xi launched this major campaign to eradicate dire poverty by 2020, and he's just celebrated and then actually is transforming the anti-poverty commission into the new rural revitalization administration. In that sense, actually, the balance between growth and equity has been on the agenda for the current leadership, and they see that as crucial to maintaining the growth momentum, and of course, also stability. But they also see it as helping to undergo the continuing drive for innovation, but also for in fact, demand, because our country, only a small proportion of the population are rich, are not going to provide the same kind of demand as a country where wealth is more broadly felt and shared.
In that sense, I think actually the Chinese leadership do have a guiding set of principles regarding distribution and so on. In fact, they have been very steadfast and also very hard charging, pushing it.mAnd to the extent that Xi, in many ways, is really one of the leaders who are most aware of risk, all kinds of risks, of the... His strategy is really to eliminate major risks. He sees poverty as a risk, redistribution is a risk, and all of those issues, in fact, are on his agenda in sense of balancing the economy, but also finding that balance between the state and society and economy.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I think that's a good point. Austan, maybe that's a good place to turn to you. Is the decline of the American middle class reversible, and can you imagine where there's a thriving American middle-class, or are these larger forces, these engines of inequality just so powerfully rooted that there's no amount of regulation that can turn them off?
Austan Goolsbee:
I don't know if regulation is how you fix it. We, this—the forces contributing to the inequality are pretty deep-seated you have to think because it's been a 30, 40, 50-year trend. That said, I do think that this is, every year gets to be a bigger and bigger issue, and these events of COVID kind of, like you had noted previously, have just accentuated and put right in people's face these issues. That basically if you work in the knowledge economy so you could do some or all of your job from home, you didn't really have a recession. If you look at their stock market wealth, it's way up, their incomes didn't go down, the unemployment rate remains very modest for them, and they didn't experience a recession. Where if you look at lower income occupations that people have to go to physical locations to do their job, whether it's waiters or custodians or all sorts of job occupations, there—it's Great Depression–like. The real unemployment rates are in the high double digits and maybe pushing 20%.
The thing is, making the comparison to China, I guess, in a way I'm sort of a contrarian. But I start from the premise…China's basically four times as big as the US in population, but the economy is not as large as the US economy, which tells you the per capita income in China is way lower than in the United States, a quarter of the US income level or less. So, it’s not the right—the right way to think about the economic relationship of the US and China is absolutely not that these are the two great competitive powers competing directly against each other. The vast majority of the US economy A, has nothing to do with the rest of the world. We're predominantly a big domestic economy. For the part that does overlap, China is much more directly overlapping with say, Mexico. Mexico is about 15%, 20% richer per capita than China, but it's at kind of height of middle income countries, where most of the Chinese economy overlaps in the international sphere.
I'm actually over the longer term, somewhat optimistic. I know we're just coming out of this horrible period of conflict and just pit=in-your-stomach kind of nature of like, "Oh God, what's going to happen next with the trade war?” But I actually think if we have this panel in 10 years, a lot of the tensions in the US and Chinese economic relationship, I think are going to sort of drift away because as China gets richer, it's going to naturally look... its economy is going to naturally look more like the rich countries now, which is to say dominated by services, healthcare, financial services, education, travel, tourism, leisure and entertainment, all that stuff's going to get bigger and bigger in China, and that is a natural source of domestic demand.
I think the leadership in China knows that and they're kind of wanting to move in that direction. And as that happens, I kind of think this feeling of tension might be a little less. The challenge to the leadership in China is that the next step is back to what you described, the “let's move into the deep water of reform.” It looks different than the going from very poor to middle to high income faster and bigger than has ever been done before. That's, that is impressive in of itself, but now you've got to make some choices, which it seems like maybe they're of two minds on it, that this share of the economy that's state-owned enterprises, once you get to that middle income section of country's income distribution, the state-owned enterprise share usually falls quite a lot, that they're kind of replaced with private sector.
In China you haven't really seen the state-owned enterprise share go down. They've got the highest state owned enterprise share you've ever had for a country as rich as they are and certainly what happened with Ant Financial. I don't know if people watched it. The financial wing of Alibaba was going to have an IPO and it was very likely to be the biggest IPO in the history of the planet. And the Chinese government, for reasons part of which we understand and part of which we're still gathering, they kind of cracked down on the company and pulled the IPO. And the reports are that the government decided that some of the leaderships rival families or enemies or something were, withstood to gain from the IPO, so they didn't want it to take place. I don't know how that maintain the control of the central party is going to mesh with the, we want to be rich and innovative. They might be able to pull it off, but I think that's going to be a source of tension for them.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
Let me just add just quickly before we pivot over to Dali on that. I'm just back on this question of the US system. I mean, are you confident that the... I mean, there are these deeply seated engines of inequality and they run even—they run faster and faster, frankly. They seem to, in many cases, be beyond the scope of...Regulation may not be the right answer. I don't know if [inaudible] is the right answer, reform is the right answer, I'm not sure what the right answer is, but I mean, if we are sitting here in 10 years from now, do you imagine a more equal distribution of wealth in the United States, and how will that be achieved?
Austan Goolsbee:
Of wealth or of income? I mean, wealth and income are very different.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
Yeah, I'm interested in wealth.
Austan Goolsbee:
I hope we do, but I'm not sure. In a weird way, the wealth distribution is more amenable to policy than the income distribution, because a lot of what's happening with the income distribution... I think of it as the wealth distribution is basically what's saved up, in the bank accounts, in the stock market wealth, in the landholdings, in the whatever of wealthy people. It's far more distributed to the top than is income of how much do you make each year? How much you make each year, a big driver of inequality on that side has been the rise of knowledge work and of technology, and basically any person, city, state, or country that has higher skill and higher education has done well. They've not only have higher income and lower unemployment, they survive the recessions better.
They've survived COVID better. That part, I don't know how... As I say, I think there's strong forces and that's probably going to continue to grow. It doesn't have to grow at the rates it's grown in the US in the last however many years. And I certainly don’t think—I don't want to get political, but I certainly don't think that in an environment where the forces are pushing you toward inequality, to me, it doesn't make sense that you would massively cut taxes for exactly the people who have been benefiting and set up tougher and tougher and smaller and smaller safety net for the people who've been suffering. I do think on the margin stuff like that, like what will be in the safety net, how does healthcare fit in the safety net, how does more education fit into the safety net? That stuff in 10 years I think is addressable. But the underlying force that knowledge work has a higher rate of return lately than physical work, I don't see that one changing.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
That's an interesting point. I think it highlights maybe a good place to [inaudible] just kind of, this moment where questions around economic legitimacy and prosperity begin to turn into political questions, which is presumably what will happen if we are sitting here in 10 years and these problems in the US have not been addressed. How do you think about that kind of looking forward in China now that…innovation with high expectations, younger people kind of finding an economic middle-class identity for themselves? How do you think about that looking forward?
Dali Yang:
Well, that's truly one of the most challenging issues facing, not only Chinese society but American societies, because of the way platforms and the information have been used. And in the Chinese case also because of the government censorship and the ability of the government, the ruling authorities, how they can actually manipulate the information in a way to guide the population. And in that sense, actually, China is working, operating on a scale that's very different from other societies. In fact, we look at the young people have done quite a bit of work, for example, the network called Bilibili and so on. You have two generations of young people now who have only seen growing prosperity. They are incredibly optimistic, but at the same time, they are also very patriotic and they have very little toleration for people who question the system also.
But partly that's also engineered, but at the same time, that's actually the kind of way that the leadership and the system have been able to garner the kind of nationalistic support and use and harness it to enhance China's competitive position. But of course, the challenge, as Austan has rightfully emphasized, is this process may also undermine growth instead of respects, especially for example, in certain cases, making it harder for private businesses to thrive. But overall though, China actually remarkably has been incredibly successful in generating, for example, a lot of the gigantic new businesses, for example, in the internet economy and so on. I think the challenge for the leadership in China has been to balance it, but at the same time, to sustain the growth while the Chinese population continues to expand, and is still not aging. The aging factor has not actually kicked in so dramatically. But the 10 years time, however, the situation would be very different because the population in China is aging rapidly and of course, with fertility rates declining dramatically in China.
A lot of the burdens of aging would have kicked in by around 2030 also, which makes it much harder for China to sustain this kind of growth. But of course there are a variety of ways that the Chinese leadership can alleviate some of those tensions and challenges. That also means that not only it can reinforce the legitimacy of the system in the meantime, but also in fact, has found a variety of other countries that are like-minded generally speaking. That's actually where I see the confrontation, the challenge, the tensions between the Chinese model and especially in the Western liberal democracies, will continue and will perhaps be felt more keenly than what Austan has tended to emphasize lately.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I think it's a good point. I mean, to be frank, when I wrote in 2004, this paper, the Beijing Consensus, arguing for an alternative model of the Washington Consensus that was emerging and part of that, I said in that, there's elements native to other countries. But I didn't really, at that point, think that you would see the degree of interest, particularly in the COVID environment, of people saying, "Hey, this is an interesting alternative governance model." When you watch the United States and the Chinese response, I think it's only natural and certainly I find in conversations with people—
Austan Goolsbee:
The only thing—
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
...there's a lot of curiosity about that.
Austan Goolsbee:
Sorry.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
No, go ahead.
Austan Goolsbee:
The only thing I would add to that is the China... Like the US, China can get away with things that nobody else can get away with because of the sheer size of its economy.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
That's right.
Austan Goolsbee:
And the US has had that benefit for a long time too, because we had such a huge domestic market. We could engage... we could do things that were dumb, and we have done them many times, that were detrimental to our own interests. But you kind of didn't see the damage because we're big enough. I wonder if you take some other country, even a big country like Indonesia, or take something smaller, Malaysia, if they say, "I'm going to follow the Chinese model and I'm going to impose control, and we're going to have state owned enterprises drive this, and we're going to require multinationals that come here to share their intellectual property with us and give us joint venture ownership." It will not work. My prediction is it will not work and they can try that, but China has an element of market power because it's done so well that maybe make its model harder for other countries to follow.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
No, not only that, I mean, this raises another interesting question I want to get to, which is in terms of culture. I remember talking to somebody who was working on this Saudi Arabian project to build a Saudi Arabian version of Shenzhen and I said, "They've got everything they need, except they're missing one key ingredient, which is a lot of Chinese people."
Austan Goolsbee:
Right.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
Right. There's also a cultural element.
Austan Goolsbee:
Right.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
It allows things to function. By the way, it's a very interesting...not the place for this discussion, but what are these cultural differences, right? I mean, the US is kind of a system that runs on rules. China is a system that runs on relationships. How do those things reconcile themselves? But one of the questions...I'm trying to take some of these questions we've been getting from the audience, and somebody asked a question about kind of, what is the role of underlying values versus kind of universal values, the person writes, the question asks: How do you think about claims of Confucian ethics versus Protestant ethics? Dali, why don't I maybe start with you? I mean, do you have a point of view on that?
Dali Yang:
Oh, absolutely. Well, it's something that I teach, and I think about all the time in many ways. Part of the issue is it’s interesting that how, when we think of East and West is China the ruling system in fact has imported a lot of things from the West and also from Japan. The Communist Party itself, actually, as an organization is not exactly Chinese. Marxism isn't exactly Chinese, but at the same time, especially in the last four decades, it has been quite willing to both borrow from the past or inherit from the past, and also borrow from the rest of the world. As a result of the fact, this [inaudible] is really a combination of different values in many ways, and also I do want to emphasize, within China there's a huge debate about the regional differences between especially the South and the North and so on.
We can see also significant differences in regional values and cultures as well. All of those come into play and the virtue of China is, like the US it’s so large so people can move around to some extent, and Shenzhen rose because the rest of the country found out they’re the best and the brightest and including capital, to Shenzhen. But at the same time, it borrowed from Hong Kong. It connected with the rest of the world as well. Of course, there are a variety of other cities that have been willing to do the same, even though they are not going to become Shenzhen. We have become more competitive, and that competition among the cities in China make it very significant. But at the same time, we have also built connections with countries and economies in the rest of the world, including through the Belt and Road Initiative and so on.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
Let me broaden that question a little bit in the following sense, which is, one of the things that's necessary for any society to function properly is trust, right? I mean, you can almost—if you basically think societies or nations or cultures as machines for solving complicated problems of organization, what makes those function is trust. You have different methods of constructing trust in these two societies that are very deeply seated, that actually go back to points where the societies were not really in deep contact with each other. Both the societies, the whole world today is facing a crisis in legitimacy of institutions and a crisis of trust. I wonder, maybe Austan to start with you, you look around the US, there's almost no institution in the US that is more trusted today than it was 10 years ago or 20 years ago. I guess it depends on how you slice it. There are probably some people who trust Fox News more than they trusted them 20 years ago, but generally speaking things like the Central Bank, like the media, like scientists are less trusted today. How do you think trust in kind of the information problem of economics and particularly, how do you think about that in the US and how important it is.
Austan Goolsbee:
Look, A, it's sad. I think your description of the data is a 100% right. From religious institutions, the military, the police, educational institutions, the government, Congress, the media, everything, big business, small business, they've all gone down. Some more than others, but everybody's gone down. There are a few economists at the University of Chicago at the Booth School who have done...They have a whole vein of research about the importance of trust in financial markets and in the making of contracts and looking at communities where trust, where people sour on trust, then they're less willing to do transactions. You have less of the...If you think of it as, I started with my historical, was to great advantage of the United States that we had the biggest open market in the world and still do. And as our trust sours on one another, it's like it's shrinking our world.
It's like, it's making our markets smaller, because you don't want to engage in transactions with people on the other side of the world, on the other side of the country, on the other side of the political aisle. So I do think that hurts us. As an economist, I guess, to the question that came in, I'm more skeptical of cultural explanations of who was rich and who was poor, than economic forces. And I would just—a lot of times it's overdetermined. There's a famous old economist who was my teacher at MIT, Bob Solow, who won the Nobel Prize and he's the creator of growth theory, the study of growth. They pressed him at one point in the media, "What are the true sources of growth?” And he said, "At the end of the day, every economist that contemplates where growth comes from ends up going down in a blaze of amateur sociology.” Let's avoid a blaze of amateur sociology and let's remember that there was a time when Japan was doing well and we were inclined to say, “It's because of Japanese philosophy, it's because of Japanese society, that's why.” Then they had two loss decades and then people were willing to say, "Oh, it's because of Japanese philosophy and Japanese society that they've had two loss decades."
I think some economic factors like, in China, they have a very high savings rate. They have a very high commitment to education, put a high value on education. There is a large open market internal to China, and they've had an export orientation to expand to the world. Those things together, they do pretty well to explain who has succeeded, what countries have succeeded in the last 40, 50 years. They do as well as any cultural explanation, I would say. And to the extent that states and cities in the US follow that same model, they've also done well. I think that trust is an angle of culture that I do understand as an economist to have an impact. I also worry that we can be a little over-determined and see the outcome and then try to back out an explanation.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I mean, I think the right way to—
Dali Yang:
[crosstalk 00:45:37]
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
—think about all these things, probably is as kind of complex adaptive systems, right? Things like trust, or like institutions, they're emergent properties of complex adaptive systems that have many different inputs. Dali, let me turn to this trust question for you. China, in a way is trying to navigate a shift in the basis of trust, right? It's a society, certainly when I moved there, really, I mean, even today, but to be honest, it was very pronounced 20 years ago that it ran on relationships. Because there was no rule of law, right? There were no rules to follow. In fact, the people who did the best are people who didn't follow the rules to some degree. The problem is that doesn't scale. If you can only do business with people that you went to junior high school with, there's a limit to how much business you can actually do. The problem is how do you actually build a sophisticated trust mechanism, both through rule of law or other sorts of things. How do you see that evolving? I mean, how do you feel about trust in China today, trust creation? How does it compare to other places and how important is that?
Dali Yang:
Well, that's actually truly a great question. I want to build on what Austan has just mentioned, namely, this Chinese emphasis today on education. Because it's not an accident that exists in China and it's also not an accident that exists in various other East Asian societies as well. In that sense, there is a historical dimension, although at some point, of course, this emphasis on education was not allowed, for example, during the Mao era, but that turned out to have been more of an aberration now rather than the historical pageant that we tend to see. In that sense, actually that emphasis on education and so on is a bundle of institutions and some attitudes that this society has been able to draw on. In fact, surveys of social trust in China tends to discount the level of trust in China, partly because it comes out so high relative to... I mean, it's not like a developing society. It's more on the level of Nordic European countries actually. As a result, sociologists and others have tried to say, "Well, maybe the Chinese level of high trust has to be discounted.”
I think actually there is a lot of argument about in fact, respecting some of those raw numbers. Part of the reason is because of the size of the country. Some of the usual way that we tend to measure trust in Europe, for example, in much smaller societies sort of may not be exactly applicable in China. When people rely on their regional and other networks, for example, from Shangdong and Yunnan and so on, they're not exactly relying on family. They are relying on a shared culture in a way that may be more regional, but that regional culture may be based on 60, 100 million people.
In that sense, actually, we have to rethink about how to think about those kinds of issues in a way. But at the same time, I do think the other side of the coin is there have been a lot of fraudulent activities in finance and other areas as well. The Chinese people sometimes, especially the elderly have been too prone to trust others in a way and that can be also harmful. I think actually in a way, trust can be good generally in forging deals, but sometimes actually it can also become a liability when you're facing dealing with crooks and so on. It's a much more conflicting situation, but why, however, that China has been able to make use of in way in recent decades while building around the asceticism in a way, because in the Mao era so much was deprived.
Once that era ended and the leadership decided to allow new initiatives, people really jumped in and they have been so eager to embrace the opportunities and so on. There are a lot of idiosyncratic factors that really allow China to deal, to accumulate and of course to come to the current level. But at the same time however, of course as we have been mentioning, the per capita GDP remains relatively low. But of course, if China is even half as high as the US, it would already be the largest economy in the world, right, sort of in that sense. But at the same time, this, compared to many other countries this is a society that really has been investing from textiles to space, that rare—few other societies have been able to do.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I mean, I think one way to summarize, I think the trust point on that one, which I agree with is China is at once a very high trust society and a very low trust society in the same place. By the way, if you're doing business there, you really better know which portion of that curve you're dealing with, but it's a fascinating dynamic. Let me end by kind of talking about the...asking you guys some questions about the larger context in which we're living, which is very much this kind of revolutionary age in which technology is fundamentally altering a lot of the underlying premises that we've been talking about here. A world, as we're discovering, that is filled with connected systems, filled with very fast-connected systems, filled with fast-connected systems that are populated by artificial intelligence—just runs and looks and feels differently than one that came before that. It really is I think we would agree probably a phenomenal shift in a lot of the underlying nature of the way that the world works.
The two societies are both having to navigate this together. There's a whole set of rules and challenges and opportunities. And there's kind of, the dominant theory of the day is that the right strategy for the United States is to kind of decouple from China and have these two systems run independently. In terms of trying to find a trajectory that allows the world to get to a point where things are stable and where you have positive engagements and have the ability to manage these existential global risks of the Anthropocene that we face today, how do you think about how each of these societies is confronting these problems of technology and what that tells us about the future?
I mean, it's very interesting to me, Austan, you mentioned the Ant Financial case, for those of us do realize that’s substantial, all of these things are more complicated than you read in the papers, but it clearly marks a view in China that there's going to be a limit to how big these companies can grow in terms of their...You know, we think in the United States of guys who run the big tech companies, Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg, they're sort of seen as kind of features of the landscape, and the politicians come and go, but these guys are kind of always there. In China, as substantial as Jack Ma is, he's not a feature of the landscape. Maybe Austan, I'll start with you. I mean, do you feel like...How do you feel about American regulation of these things? I know it's something you've thought about and is a very important question for the incoming [crosstalk] administration.
Austan Goolsbee:
Right. It's not like when I raised that example in China. It's not like the US has it all figured out. I mean, we're clearly confronting these massive technological forces that have created fortunes for individuals and for companies, giving them the kind of power that we really have not seen in the United States at least since the late 1800s or something in the robber baron era, if then. So he US is going to have to come, I think, to some public decision by the body politic of how much power do we want to leave in the hands of these big tech companies and should it be government regulation, should it be more competition? What is it going to be? We probably could learn, we should at least be watching what the Chinese approach is. With this Ant Financial it certainly feels like they're kind of at least drawing a line in the sand and saying, "We just want all of you tech people to know we're not going to put up with that."
But at the same time, these electronic payment systems are a much bigger share. They're much more dominant as a share of consumer finance in China than they are than any comparable thing is in the United States. So I think there's some tensions there. On climate change though, which was one of the others that you're thinking about in the kind of the decline of species and the existential threat to the planet. I think that some cooperation with the US and China is going to be vital, I mean, for it to work, and in a way, the greatest thing that could happen would just be if the bread and butter economics continued the way it has in the last 10 years, which is to say, it is the cost of renewable energies that has come down astronomically, so that now—it used to be nobody in an advanced country would build a coal-fired power plant. Because it was just too expensive, partly from regulation, but partly because the price of natural gas came down so much. It was just bonkers. You'd be like, "Nobody wants to think about coal because natural gas."
Well, now solar and wind and some of the renewables have gotten so cheap that natural gas is no longer on the table. If the cost comes down that much, you will absolutely see the Chinese saying the most efficient, cheapest way to get more economic growth is in ways that involve less carbon pollution, and they're going to embrace that, and it's going to look like we're cooperating. The thing is, some years ago I was asked to go to China and give a talk about urbanization. And China had recently passed to be majority urban. That, it was kind of a big thing. Sort of the mental image in China at that time was absolutely not that we're an urban country. And so the question was, what are the lessons for Chinese urbanization from urbanization in the US? What I said was China is heavily urban now and is only going to get more so, if the other rich countries of the world are an indicator. Every rich country is dominated by urban areas, because we're more productive when we're in urban areas with each other. And the US has totally decentralized, and so we've done it well and badly, and we've had catastrophic failures and we've had great successes. You will confront a series of urban issues, like transportation is going to be a problem, housing and prices are a problem, healthcare, and delivery will be a problem.
And one of the problems, perennial problems, is urban pollution. The US went through a phase where we were rapidly developing. We had massive urban pollution, and as we got richer, the body politic decided we're willing to have less economic growth, because we want to be able to breathe more freely. I do think that this environmental...China's now getting rich enough that you can already see it. They're steering down. "We got to steer down, we're going to have environmental regulations. We're going to have pollution regulations." And I think as that happens again, it's going to make our interests pretty similar on some of these climate things.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
I think it's a super good point. Dali, how do you look at that, at the same question of kind of the ability to both kind of get hands around these incredibly disruptive technologies and also face existential threats that we all share?
Dali Yang:
I think it's remarkable going back 10 years...well, going back three years, for example, most people tended to think China all copy or borrow or stealing stuff from the US. But increasingly, I think people are beginning to see China as they respond to the challenges of creating new opportunities and so on. I mean, it's remarkable how it's a lot of the sweat shops and cheap labor in China that helped to drive, for example, solar panel prices down so that renewables are much more affordable today. China did not have a Robert Moses, and as a result, it was able to develop high speed rail in particular, much more easily. Of course at the same time, China practically bypassed the Visa and MasterCards and moved to digital payments actually in one go practically for most people. Likewise to cellular from—without land lines as well.
That kind of experience has emboldened the Chinese really to think, to innovate in a way that they no longer...They still borrow. They still want to actually learn from Silicon Valley and so on. But at the same time, a lot of the Chinese experiences are going to become even more important over time. I think in that sense, that's where a lot of the confidence is beginning to come from the Chinese leadership as they map out how Chinese innovation, especially Chinese investments, are headed down the road as they pursue the goal of full modernization. Of course, borrowing could have catastrophic circumstances in a way. I think the rest of the world has to first make sense of what China is doing, but at the same time, there are going to be, not only just lessons, but what China is doing also has implications because it's Chinese investors that are investing so massively in Africa and elsewhere as well. So those—we all have an impact and I do think, I agree in certain respects, China is moving, thinking about carbon issues certainly on its own now. But at the same time, it's better to do it globally rather than just China or the US alone.
Likewise, actually on some other issues there are, of course, China will want to play a big role in setting standards, for example, on 6G, 7G, and in that sense, actually, we better get our act together.
Joshua Cooper Ramo:
Thank you. Thank you for a terrific conversation. I think as we would have expected two great minds speaking very much in the Chicago tradition based on facts and not too much abstract theorizing, which I think made it particularly fruitful so, thank you all. Thank you, both of you for your extremely thoughtful remarks, and I wish everybody a good rest of the day. Good evening.
Austan Goolsbee:
And thank you, Josh, for your remarks.
Dali Yang:
Thank you.
COVID-19’s Impact, East and West
Professor Goolsbee commented that COVID-19 has complicated what was already a problematic recovery from the 2008–09 financial crash in the United States. “Before COVID, one of the biggest problems we were facing was a mindset that believed that if we could just go back to 2005 when things were normal, everything would be OK. But 2005 was not normal—we were in the middle of a raging housing bubble—and if you’re waiting for that 2005 bus to take you back to Normalville, you’re going to be hitchhiking.”
COVID-19, he added, “has made that even more true because this is a business cycle unlike anything we’ve seen before. The sectors that have been the most affected—like personal services, leisure, entertainment and travel—are the ones that in the past have been considered recession proof.” The result is that economists and policymakers “need to do some soul-searching,” Goolsbee said. “People are basing their decisions on what happened in 1975 or 1995 when it’s clear that those models don’t work today.”
Professor Yang commented that the Chinese government—after an initial period of fumbling—ultimately acted decisively to contain the virus by locking down 11 million of its citizens. The reason, he added, is that many of the people in power—including president Xi Jinping—remember what the country went through in 2003 with the much smaller SARS epidemic. “In 2003 China was on the receiving end of World Health Organization travel advisories and was deeply troubled by what was going on,” Yang said. “This time, they took an extraordinarily strong stance in terms of analyzing and dealing with the virus and also took a global stance in terms of economic management.”
Trade Tensions, East and West
Regarding the trade war that has roiled the waters between the United States and China in recent years, Professor Goolsbee said he is somewhat optimistic. “I think a lot of the tensions we are experiencing right now will sort of drift away over the next 10 years,” Goolsbee said. “As China gets richer, its economy will naturally look more and more like that of other rich countries, which is to say it will be dominated by services like health care, education, and travel and entertainment. These things are pretty naturally domestic demand driven rather than exported, and I think the leadership in China knows that and is kind of wanting to move in that direction.”
Professor Yang took a more cautious stance. “I think the tensions between the Chinese model and the Western liberal democracies will continue,” he said. The reason, he added, is that China remains a country with a communist leadership and an economy dominated by state-owned enterprises. “The Chinese economy operates on a scale very different from other societies. Today, you have two generations of young people who have only seen growth and prosperity, who are incredibly patriotic and have very little toleration for people who question the system.”
Where East Meets West
One key to China’s success has been a willingness to absorb lessons from other cultures, Yang noted. “The Chinese ruling system has imported a lot of things from the West, including Marxism, and also from Hong Kong and Japan,” he said. “As a result, the system in China is really a combination of different values.”
The country is facing some headwinds in the future. These include an aging population and declining fertility rates. “The burdens of an aging population will begin to kick in around 2030 and will make it much harder for the country to sustain the level of growth it has experienced in recent years,” he said.
Climate change is one issue that could encourage cooperation between the United States and China, Goolsbee added. “Cooperation with China is going to be vital,” he said. “The US went through a phase when it was rapidly developing and there was a massive amount of urban pollution. But ultimately, the body politic decided it was willing to have less economic growth if the result was cleaner air and water. I think the same thing is starting to happen in China. They’re starting to talk about environmental regulations. And as that happens, it’s going to make our interests pretty similar.”
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- 我很高兴欢迎大家参加
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本系列的最新活动
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思想的交汇：商业与人类
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本系列旨在
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研究有关商业与贸易的基本问题
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不仅从商业和经济的角度分析问题
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更通过文化和人文探究的视角加以观察
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本系列由布斯商学院
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和斯蒂凡诺维奇知识形成研究所
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联合举办
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我感谢布斯商学院院长Madhav Rajan
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以及斯特瓦诺维奇研究所所长
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和古典文学系教授
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Shadi Bartsch
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感谢他们共同努力创立这个系列
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对我来说，这个系列不仅有趣
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而且启迪智慧
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抓住了芝加哥大学的一些本质
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即需要从多个角度研究复杂的问题
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理解不同的观点
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和审视假设
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这些都是严格和富有挑战性的研究性质
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突出了大学整体教研工作的特性
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今天的讨论主题是东西方经济学
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Rajan院长将稍后正式介绍讲者和主持人
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因为他们都是我的好朋友
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我想向Austan Goolsbee教授、杨大利教授
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表达我个人的感谢
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并向我院知名校友Joshua Cooper Ramo致敬
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感谢他参加今天的活动
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很高兴见到你们每个人，欢迎Joshua回母校
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现在，我将把时间交给Madhav
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他将介绍小组和主持人
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- 谢谢Zimmer校长
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大家好
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取决于你在哪里，晚上好或者早上好
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正如Bob所说，我是Madhav Rajan
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是芝加哥大学布斯商学院院长
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和George Pratt Shultz会计学教授
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我很荣幸能代表布斯商学院
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和芝加哥大学斯蒂凡诺维奇知识形成研究所
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欢迎大家参加”思想的交汇：商业与人类“讲座
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很高兴能介绍今天非常杰出的讲者
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Austan Goolsbee在芝加哥大学布斯商学院
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担任Robert P. Gwinn经济学教授
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他曾在华盛顿
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担任经济顾问委员会主席
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和总统内阁成员
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他的研究为他赢得富布赖特学者
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和斯隆研究奖的认可
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他曾被世界经济论坛
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评为100位明日世界领袖之一
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以及获《金融时报》评选为
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六位未来大师之一
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Austan能清楚地解释经济学
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因此广受媒体欢迎
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John Stewart形容他是
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“Eliot Ness与Milton Friedman的混合体”
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Austan两次获《商业周刊》最佳商学院指南
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评为明星教授
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非常感谢Austan你能参与其中
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- 谢谢
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- 杨大利是校长高级顾问
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以及大学国际事务处处长
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协助制定并实施大学在教研和合作方面
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的全球战略和倡议
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为我院师生
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创造和持续提供国际机会
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特别关注中国和东亚其他地区
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大利是政治学系和学院
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William Claude Reavis教授
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并在2010年至2016年6月期间
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担任芝加哥大学北京中心
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创始主任
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促进全校合作和交流
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他同时也是芝加哥全球事务委员会
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特邀高级研究员
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大利，谢谢出席
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- 谢谢你
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-欢迎
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我们的主持人正如Bob所说
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是芝加哥大学校友Joshua Cooper Ramo
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他是Sornay公司董事长兼行政总裁
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Sornay為私人和主要投资公司
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Joshua曾担任首席主席和顾问
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已完成价值超过2000亿美元的交易
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并曾领导投资
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与中国最重要的商业金融机构合作
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在此之前，Joshua在基辛格协会
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担任行政总裁和副主席长达15年
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亦曾任《时代》杂志
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外文编辑和高级编辑
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他是《纽约时报》两本畅销书的作者
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分别为"不可思议的年代"和"第七感"
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两书已分别被翻译成20多种语言
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感谢Joshua主持今天的讨论
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题目是东西方经济学，有请
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- 谢谢你
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很高兴能和大家一起
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我想既然我们的活动
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而且芝加哥大学的优良传统
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就是先刨根问底
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然后才开始思考与展望未来
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因此我们可以先试着提供一点背景资料
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介绍地球两端
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不同的经济学思想
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大利，我想也许我会从你开始
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当你回顾历史的时候
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能否解释或回溯经济学
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作为政治行为和政治责任的演变过程
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当我们开始思考现况时
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你会强调哪些重要内容？
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- 好，有很多方面，我首先想到的是…
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当我想到你问的问题时
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会思考经济体制的现代化程度
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例如中央银行直到20世纪初才创立
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所以在此之前
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中国和世界其他许多地方的货币
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都以贵金属等实物为基础
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但同时在中国的情况中
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管治传统强调学者学习儒家思想
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特别是通过科举考试
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获挑选领导国家
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当然经济正好是其中的一部分
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但与此同时
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中国一直有真正重视学术智慧的传统
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这在一定程度上
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贬低了商业交易的重要性
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纵然中国是最早采用纸币的社会之一
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这情况好坏参半，一部分是因为，事实上
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古代中国在很多方面都是前现代的
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有一套既定的做法
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但同时缺乏对经济的系统性思考
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尤其是经济如何与体制互动
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以及事实上全球经济如何互联互通
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事实上，一直以来
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中国经济固然连接全球
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但同时也有限度
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特别是在清朝
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非常强调要限制海外交流
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- 是的，所以我认为这点很重要
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也很关键
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当我们审视亚洲时
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我们了解到在未来20年或25年
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该地区将会有长足的经济增长
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但也明白经济学的许多概念
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均建基于启蒙运动、工业革命
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还有科学革命的价值之上
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对亚洲而言，这些都是外来进口的
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也许在这一点
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刚好可让我们转换到西方视角
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以此视角看经济哲学的发展
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西方思考世界的方式
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在一定程度上确实与启蒙运动、文艺复兴
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和工业革命齐头并进
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你们如何看待经济学的历史？
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在我们做好准备，展望未来之际
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有哪些重要的里程碑需要回顾？
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- 是的，这些都是很深奥的问题
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但亦属意料之内
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当你说我们要从头开始说起
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我就想，哦不，是伯罗奔尼撒战争
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我得去复习我们在芝加哥大学学到的东西
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我想我会把问题分为经济学史
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和经济史
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在经济方面
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美国之所以能成为
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世界上最富有的主要经济体
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似乎是循序渐进的过程
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起源于天赋的丰沛自然资源
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所以在发展初期和中期
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美国经济均以大量资源为基础
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类似于南非、澳大利亚
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或智利、阿根廷等类似国家的模式
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美国拥有世界上最大的开放市场
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在美国国内贸易中
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人们有意识地在宪法中规定
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各州之间的贸易不能征收关税
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这对美国经济史来说非常重要
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进入20世纪，开始有大规模投资
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部分源自政府，部分则为个人投资
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范畴涵盖基础建设、技术、科学
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而仅仅是美国的普通劳动人口
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就已快速地大幅提升教育水平
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这一切都让我们走上经济发展的道路
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从经济学的角度来看
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我们走过的路高低起伏，左右摇摆
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经济危机总是引致学术危机
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我们质疑自己在做什么，怀疑自己有否犯错
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如果大家想的话
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可以谈谈经济学专业峰会
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但从20世纪初到中叶的历史时期
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大众似乎觉得极度自由放任主义
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是唯一可行的经济理念
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后来宏观经济学百花齐放
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到了21世纪
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行为经济学格外受到重视
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当中结合心理学对经济学的见解
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大量增加数据的使用
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加上微观经济学的兴起
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重要程度甚至超越宏观经济学
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虽然两者有一点分野
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但我认为经济发展
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与经济学专业的发展方向是一致的
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- 对，这是个有趣的开始
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也许可以衔接到现在的境况
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因为美国不同群体之间
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显然正处于热烈的辩论之中
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经验丰富的经济学家
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和受过学术训练的诺贝尔奖得主
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对正确的未来路向各持己见
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所以，也许我想问的问题是
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身为经济学家，以学术的角度来看
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你觉得我们面前的问题是否可以解決
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可以分析
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还是我们已处於新的领域？
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然后也许还可以從政策制定者的角度看
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你该如何调整？
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如何应对超出模型预测的情况？
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- 没错，两种角度都有一点，愈超出…
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在新冠肺炎出现之前
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我认为美国面临最大的问题之一
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是一种我们观望的心态
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我们只需要等待一切恢复正常
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而他们定义正常状态为2005年的样子
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而2005年其实并不正常
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有汹涌的房地产泡沫
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很多奇怪的事情发生
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所以如果你我只是不停地说
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如果你在等2005年的公交车回来
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接你回正常的城市
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你实际上是在搭便车
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你还懵然不知，因为没有车
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那辆公交车已经不再开了
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现在，我认为新冠肺炎的经验
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使得这一点更加真实
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因为这个商业周期，经济衰退与复苏
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都与我们以前所见过的不一样
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缘起与经济毫无联系
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受到冲击的
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是一批我们一直认为不会衰退的行业
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富裕的大经济体
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西方发达经济体都以服务行业为主
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如保健经济、个人服务
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休闲娱乐，旅行和旅游业
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这些行业占美国经济的75、80%
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而且在经济衰退时通常不会下跌
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然后新冠肺炎来袭，大家都说
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我不想看到熊市
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好吧，他们一直都不想看到熊市
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说点不同的
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我不会去健身房，不会去餐厅和办公室
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直到新冠肺炎过去
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你们可以看到紧张的情绪
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而这种情绪就是你问题的前设
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领先的经济学家和政策制定者
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尝试将当前的经验塞进模型中
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拟合商业周期的数据
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但这些数据与现况毫无关系
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他们在预测
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经济复苏会需时多久？
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会否出现通货膨胀？
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这一切都基于1975或1995年的数据
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我想我们应抚心自问
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因为这些模型明显不起作用
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- 这就是我认为经济学
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和经济学家讨论的有趣之处
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对
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你的认知模型在制定政策时非常重要
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正如你所指出，我想我们所有人…
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你都希望大家能理解
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我们生活在脱离常态的时代
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事情的发展越来越快
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某程度上又相互联系
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从政策角度来看
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这显然深具挑战性
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东西方都面临着前所未见的事情
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大利也许可以就此谈谈自己的见解
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中国已取得人类史上史无前例的成就
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帮助数亿人脱贫
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快速工业化
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并以惊人速度转型至信息型经济
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我从2002年开始在中国生活和工作
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又在刚过去的11至12月到访中国
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比起一年前，现在的景况已经截然不同
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你会听到人说新冠肺炎根本是发展加速器
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加速推动人们在家看电影
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进行视频会议和网上购物
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同时亦可能加剧了中美的紧张关系
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大大增加中国内需
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这无疑加速了新意识的出现
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但现在他们将继续尝试
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做出史无前例的事情
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习近平所说的「进入改革的深水区」
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属于哪种经济模式？
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我们可从经济政策策划者的政治生态中
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知道什么？
344
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,700
有个惊人的数据一直深植于我脑内
345
00:16:07,700 --> 00:16:09,720
在1981年
346
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,620
中国省委书记的平均教育程度
347
00:16:12,620 --> 00:16:14,020
只有小学五年级
348
00:16:14,910 --> 00:16:16,730
当我12月到访那里时
349
00:16:16,730 --> 00:16:18,896
我看到一个省委书记
350
00:16:18,896 --> 00:16:21,010
他们大多数人都有…
351
00:16:21,010 --> 00:16:24,050
明显拥有巨大的知识优势
352
353
00:16:24,050 --> 00:16:27,610
但在面对人类史上前所未见的情况时
354
00:16:27,610 --> 00:16:28,250
还是帮不上忙
355
356
00:16:28,250 --> 00:16:31,277
所以大利，你会怎么分析这种情况？
357
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,500
- 首先，在很多方面
358
00:16:37,500 --> 00:16:42,500
中国固然在武汉最初爆发疫症时应对失误
359
00:16:42,670 --> 00:16:46,020
但与此同时，我们可以看到
360
00:16:46,020 --> 00:16:50,390
中国领导层事实上亦有对策
361
00:16:50,390 --> 00:16:53,880
最后确认这是一种传染性高的新疾病
362
363
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:58,430
并果断决定封锁1100万人口的城市
364
365
00:16:58,430 --> 00:17:02,560
但其实部分原因
366
367
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,910
我最近几个月已经研究了很久
368
00:17:04,910 --> 00:17:08,340
那就是许多人曾经应对过非典型肺炎
369
00:17:08,340 --> 00:17:10,800
包括习近平主席本人也是
370
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:15,150
所以那些是经历过2003年非典的人
371
00:17:15,150 --> 00:17:17,700
他们还有当时的记忆
372
00:17:17,700 --> 00:17:22,700
并在当年隔离了数千人
373
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:24,910
现在他们决定如法炮制
374
00:17:24,910 --> 00:17:27,020
只是这次的规模更大
375
00:17:27,020 --> 00:17:31,110
但同时，正如你正确地指出
376
00:17:31,110 --> 00:17:34,700
其实在很多方面，2003年中国经济…
377
00:17:34,700 --> 00:17:38,140
当时中国才刚加入世贸
378
00:17:38,140 --> 00:17:41,060
经济规模要小得多
379
00:17:41,060 --> 00:17:46,364
但现在中国已是14、15万亿美元的经济体
380
381
00:17:46,364 --> 00:17:51,364
因此某种程度上影响更为重大
382
00:17:51,750 --> 00:17:54,950
但我感觉在这种情况下
383
00:17:54,950 --> 00:17:58,330
中国领导层仍能逐步迅速地在各方面
384
00:17:58,330 --> 00:18:04,500
找到稳定模式处理经济和传染病
385
386
00:18:04,500 --> 00:18:08,720
充分表明中国与2003年的差异所在
387
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,310
更不用说在2003年
388
00:18:12,310 --> 00:18:18,170
世界卫生组织对中国发出旅游警示
389
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:23,620
而中国亦深受疫情困扰
390
00:18:23,620 --> 00:18:29,400
并需要为此向邻近国家道歉
391
392
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,100
而这一次，事实上
393
00:18:31,100 --> 00:18:35,160
中国领导层真的采取了非常不同的策略
394
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,950
他们在1月20日就果断地进行干预
395
00:18:38,950 --> 00:18:44,200
同时在分析、处理病毒
396
397
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,040
以及与国际联手合作方面
398
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,510
也采取了异常强硬的立场
399
00:18:49,510 --> 00:18:51,470
我认为在很多方面来说
400
00:18:51,470 --> 00:18:55,153
他们将公共卫生
401
00:18:55,153 --> 00:18:57,980
融入经济管理
402
00:18:57,980 --> 00:18:59,690
以及其对管理经济的理解当中
403
00:18:59,690 --> 00:19:01,200
当然我们都知道
404
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,910
回到经济学专业
405
00:19:04,910 --> 00:19:08,690
以及管治方法的问题上
406
00:19:08,690 --> 00:19:11,110
中国领导层其实一方面参考Milton Friedman的理论
407
00:19:11,110 --> 00:19:14,017
他1988年曾到访北京
408
00:19:14,017 --> 00:19:18,770
但同时亦保持着一定距离
409
00:19:18,770 --> 00:19:23,410
维护国营企业的强势发展
410
00:19:23,410 --> 00:19:25,270
并投资关键行业
411
00:19:25,270 --> 00:19:27,403
所以我觉得他们其实更相信
412
00:19:27,403 --> 00:19:30,820
这是他们应做的事
413
00:19:30,820 --> 00:19:32,020
同时世界其他地区也在变化
414
00:19:32,020 --> 00:19:35,490
他们对中国的反应也正在改变
415
00:19:35,490 --> 00:19:41,840
这意味着其实尤其在创新、半导体等领域
416
417
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,860
未来在各方面将会更多激烈的互动
418
419
00:19:46,860 --> 00:19:51,510
我认为中国领导层对此有很多看法
420
421
00:19:51,510 --> 00:19:58,630
其中一部分是令中国完全现代化
422
423
00:19:58,630 --> 00:20:01,380
且在国际间拥有强大经济实力
424
00:20:01,380 --> 00:20:03,223
经济规模应当超越美国
425
00:20:04,430 --> 00:20:07,000
- 所以大利，其中一个因素
426
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:11,017
显然是尽力扩展中产阶级
427
00:20:11,017 --> 00:20:13,660
我们从历史中了解到一件事
428
00:20:13,660 --> 00:20:15,657
就是中产阶级带来稳定
429
430
00:20:15,657 --> 00:20:17,830
人类在19世纪学会的一大教训
431
00:20:17,830 --> 00:20:20,460
也是俾斯麦和以色列人得以明白的道理
432
00:20:20,460 --> 00:20:21,660
就是一旦人们进入中产阶级
433
00:20:21,660 --> 00:20:22,610
就不希望有革命
434
00:20:22,610 --> 00:20:28,670
因为他们不想烧掉新买的房子
435
436
00:20:28,670 --> 00:20:32,140
这不只是经济或收入的问题
437
00:20:32,140 --> 00:20:33,190
如果你认为你孩子的生活
438
00:20:33,190 --> 00:20:35,210
会比你更好
439
00:20:35,210 --> 00:20:37,500
而且对未来充满憧憬
440
00:20:37,500 --> 00:20:38,890
你就似乎已经成为了中产人士
441
00:20:38,890 --> 00:20:41,490
当然，这也是我们看到在中国
442
00:20:41,490 --> 00:20:42,340
大量扩展的事情
443
00:20:42,340 --> 00:20:46,240
你如何看待这种进展？
444
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,810
我想这或许也关系到
445
00:20:48,810 --> 00:20:50,690
一个可能很有趣的问题
446
00:20:50,690 --> 00:20:53,030
就是经济作为政治体制合法性的根基
447
00:20:53,030 --> 00:20:57,573
应如何与其他问题妥善平衡？
448
449
00:20:58,830 --> 00:21:03,010
- 我认为关键是要记住
450
00:21:03,010 --> 00:21:06,180
中国其实仍然是共产党执政
451
00:21:06,180 --> 00:21:09,920
事实上，领导层正在发起一场新的运动
452
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,650
引导共产党员学习党史
453
00:21:12,650 --> 00:21:18,810
在这种情况下，其实要牢记的问题
454
455
00:21:18,810 --> 00:21:20,730
不仅仅是实质经济增长
456
00:21:20,730 --> 00:21:24,360
还有财富分配和公义的问题
457
458
00:21:25,770 --> 00:21:29,700
如果你回过头看，你会很清楚
459
00:21:29,700 --> 00:21:32,460
政策其中一部分是让中国家庭
460
00:21:32,460 --> 00:21:34,250
真正能够拥有自己的房产
461
00:21:34,250 --> 00:21:38,170
例如，现时90%的中国家庭都拥有房产
462
00:21:38,170 --> 00:21:40,380
比美国的比例高得多
463
00:21:40,380 --> 00:21:42,570
当然，土地又是另外一个问题
464
00:21:42,570 --> 00:21:45,730
但与此同时，在过去的2015年
465
00:21:45,730 --> 00:21:48,010
习主席发起一场重大运动
466
00:21:48,010 --> 00:21:53,010
旨在于2020年前消除赤贫
467
00:21:54,548 --> 00:21:57,450
事實上，他才剛庆祝实现目标
468
00:21:57,450 --> 00:22:04,420
并计划把扶贫委员会改造成乡村振兴局
469
470
00:22:04,420 --> 00:22:08,610
所以从这个意义上说
471
00:22:08,610 --> 00:22:11,130
增长和公平之间的平衡
472
00:22:11,130 --> 00:22:14,250
已经列入目前领导层的议程
473
00:22:14,250 --> 00:22:16,820
他们认为这对维持增长动力及稳定性
474
00:22:16,820 --> 00:22:18,910
至关重要
475
00:22:18,910 --> 00:22:25,210
他们也认为这有助持续推动创新
476
00:22:25,210 --> 00:22:28,080
以及应付内需
477
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,737
因为如果国家只有一小部分人是富人
478
479
00:22:31,737 --> 00:22:34,170
其需求与财富广泛分布及共享的国家
480
00:22:35,370 --> 00:22:40,370
其实不尽相同
481
00:22:40,500 --> 00:22:41,910
这样来看的话
482
00:22:41,910 --> 00:22:42,730
我认为中国领导层
483
00:22:42,730 --> 00:22:47,470
确有一套财富分配等相关的指导思想
484
00:22:47,470 --> 00:22:50,490
事实上，他们一直非常坚定
485
00:22:50,490 --> 00:22:54,240
且强硬地推行这些政策
486
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,393
习主席某程度上
487
00:22:56,393 --> 00:23:00,650
实在是最有危机意识的领导人
488
00:23:00,650 --> 00:23:03,540
准备好应对各种危机
489
00:23:03,540 --> 00:23:06,600
他的策略是要消除重大危机
490
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,931
他认为贫穷是种危机
491
00:23:08,931 --> 00:23:11,470
财富再分配是种危机
492
00:23:11,470 --> 00:23:14,950
事实上，所有这些问题都在他的议程上
493
00:23:14,950 --> 00:23:16,740
希望平衡经济
494
00:23:16,740 --> 00:23:21,523
同时寻找国家、社会和经济之间的平衡
495
496
00:23:22,368 --> 00:23:23,290
- 我认为这是一个很好的观点
497
00:23:23,290 --> 00:23:26,598
Austan，也许你能谈谈
498
00:23:26,598 --> 00:23:31,420
美国中产阶级的衰落可否逆转？
499
00:23:31,420 --> 00:23:36,070
你能想象美国中产阶级依然蓬勃吗？
500
501
00:23:36,070 --> 00:23:39,740
还是这些力量太强大
502
00:23:39,740 --> 00:23:41,410
这些不平等太根深蒂固
503
00:23:41,410 --> 00:23:44,550
以致问题无法经调控解决？
504
00:23:44,550 --> 00:23:47,453
- 我不知道调控是否正确的解决方案
505
00:23:49,130 --> 00:23:52,070
导致不平等的力量是深层次的
506
00:23:52,070 --> 00:23:55,890
你必须思考
507
00:23:55,890 --> 00:23:59,890
因为这是一个30、40、50年的趋势
508
00:23:59,890 --> 00:24:03,830
也就是说
509
00:24:03,830 --> 00:24:07,480
问题只会随年月越滚越大
510
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,130
而且就像你之前提到
511
00:24:10,130 --> 00:24:14,700
新冠肺炎等的事件
512
00:24:14,700 --> 00:24:19,290
只会更加放大问题，迫使人们面对
513
00:24:19,290 --> 00:24:21,050
基本上，如果你在知识型经济中工作
514
00:24:21,050 --> 00:24:23,963
你可以在家做完部分或全部工作
515
00:24:24,820 --> 00:24:26,890
你不会经历所谓的衰退
516
00:24:26,890 --> 00:24:29,140
如果你看看他们的股市财富
517
00:24:29,140 --> 00:24:32,070
那是一直上升的，收入没有下降
518
00:24:32,070 --> 00:24:36,130
对他们来说，失业率仍然很低
519
00:24:36,130 --> 00:24:38,610
他们并没有经历经济衰退
520
00:24:38,610 --> 00:24:41,610
如果你看一下低收入的职业
521
00:24:41,610 --> 00:24:45,610
那些人必须到实体地点工作
522
00:24:45,610 --> 00:24:52,740
不管是服务员、看护员还是其他职业亦然
523
524
00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:55,550
他们就像经历经济大萧条一样
525
00:24:55,550 --> 00:24:59,440
失业率高达双位数
526
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,073
可能逼近20%
527
00:25:03,300 --> 00:25:07,640
问题是，与中国相比
528
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:12,033
我在某种程度上持相反观点
529
00:25:13,140 --> 00:25:16,800
但我先从前设说起
530
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,150
如果中国的人口是美国的四倍
531
00:25:20,150 --> 00:25:24,050
但经济规模却没有美国大
532
00:25:24,050 --> 00:25:31,440
说明中国的人均收入远低于美国
533
534
535
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,840
只有美国收入水平的四分之一或更低
536
537
538
00:25:42,890 --> 00:25:52,430
绝对不是要两强相争，直接比拼
539
540
541
00:25:52,430 --> 00:25:55,300
美国经济的绝大部分
542
00:25:55,300 --> 00:25:57,960
与世界其他地方无关
543
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,080
我们主要是一个本土经济大国
544
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,830
至于相似部分
545
00:26:03,830 --> 00:26:08,830
中国与比如说墨西哥更能直接重合
546
00:26:09,370 --> 00:26:14,120
墨西哥比中国人均收入高15、20%左右
547
00:26:14,120 --> 00:26:16,360
但这样算中等收入
548
00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:18,540
中高收入国家的顶点水平
549
00:26:18,540 --> 00:26:24,360
中国经济大致与此国际水平重合
550
551
00:26:24,360 --> 00:26:29,360
长远来看，我感觉有点乐观
552
00:26:30,700 --> 00:26:35,210
我知道我们刚走出这场可怕的冲突
553
00:26:35,210 --> 00:26:39,570
状态就如胸口发闷一般
554
00:26:39,570 --> 00:26:43,213
叩问上帝接下来贸易战情况会怎么样
555
00:26:44,490 --> 00:26:48,193
但如果我们10年后小组再聚
556
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,240
相信到时美国和中国的经济关系中
557
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:57,710
很多的紧张局势将会消失
558
559
00:26:57,710 --> 00:27:02,710
因为随着中国变得越来越富裕
560
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,480
其经济会自然看起来
561
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,870
更像现在的富裕国家
562
00:27:08,870 --> 00:27:13,430
也就是说，以医疗、金融服务
563
00:27:13,430 --> 00:27:16,970
教育、旅游、观光、休闲、娱乐等服务为主
564
00:27:16,970 --> 00:27:19,340
中国的这些行业会越来越大
565
00:27:19,340 --> 00:27:23,620
是自然而起的内需
566
00:27:23,620 --> 00:27:25,796
我想中国的领导层也知道这一点
567
00:27:25,796 --> 00:27:28,950
他们想往这个方向发展
568
00:27:28,950 --> 00:27:32,500
而当这种情况发生时
569
00:27:32,500 --> 00:27:34,540
我觉得紧张的局势可能会减缓
570
00:27:34,540 --> 00:27:39,540
而中国领导人面临的挑战
571
00:27:40,450 --> 00:27:45,450
就是下一步回到了你所说的政策
572
00:27:46,010 --> 00:27:49,860
进入改革的深水区
573
00:27:49,860 --> 00:27:54,010
这看起来不同于从非常贫穷
574
00:27:54,010 --> 00:27:56,600
逐步提升至中高收入的过程
575
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,360
进程空前迅速巨大
576
00:27:59,360 --> 00:28:02,340
这本身就令人赞叹
577
00:28:02,340 --> 00:28:05,250
但现在领导层必须作出选择
578
00:28:05,250 --> 00:28:10,150
但他们看起来似乎踌躇不前
579
580
00:28:10,150 --> 00:28:14,720
因为国营企业占有的经济比率
581
582
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:19,720
一旦到了中产收入阶层
583
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:25,840
通常就会大大下降
584
585
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,100
以至被私营企业取代
586
00:28:29,100 --> 00:28:31,040
在中国，你还没有真正看到
587
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,500
国营企业的占有率下降
588
00:28:33,500 --> 00:28:36,610
相比其他富裕程度相若的国家
589
00:28:36,610 --> 00:28:39,493
中国的国企占比是最高的
590
00:28:40,340 --> 00:28:44,440
当然还有蚂蚁金融的事情
591
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,600
不知道大家看了没有
592
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:51,517
阿里巴巴的金融板块要首次公开募股
593
00:28:51,517 --> 00:28:54,690
很有可能是全球史上
594
00:28:54,690 --> 00:28:59,670
最大型的首次公开募股
595
00:28:59,670 --> 00:29:02,800
而中国政府基于一些我们了解到的原因
596
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,200
以及一些仍在了解当中的原因
597
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:10,200
算是打击了公司，取消了其募股活动
598
00:29:10,830 --> 00:29:14,740
报道称，政府觉得
599
00:29:14,740 --> 00:29:18,880
领导人敌对势力的家族或敌人之类
600
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,220
可能从招股中获得利益
601
00:29:22,220 --> 00:29:24,413
所以不希望活动发生
602
00:29:25,380 --> 00:29:30,380
我不知道保持中央党派控制权
603
00:29:30,420 --> 00:29:36,810
如何跟变得富有和创新连上关系
604
605
00:29:36,810 --> 00:29:38,370
他们也许能做到
606
00:29:38,370 --> 00:29:42,100
但我认为这将是紧张局势的来源
607
00:29:42,100 --> 00:29:44,160
- 请大利回应之前
608
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,033
让我很快回到这个美国体制的问题上
609
610
00:29:48,500 --> 00:29:53,510
你是否有信心所有深层次的不公…
611
612
00:29:53,510 --> 00:29:57,423
坦白说，这些问题愈演愈烈
613
00:29:58,550 --> 00:30:03,230
而且很多时似乎超出可调控的范围
614
00:30:03,230 --> 00:30:05,660
调控可能不是正确方案
615
00:30:05,660 --> 00:30:06,560
我不知道什么是正确方案
616
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:07,450
不知改革是否正确方案
617
00:30:07,450 --> 00:30:09,970
我不确定，但我的意思是
618
00:30:09,970 --> 00:30:11,580
如果10年后我们还坐在这里
619
00:30:11,580 --> 00:30:14,900
你觉得美国财富分配更公平吗？
620
00:30:14,900 --> 00:30:18,160
这将如何实现？
621
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,690
- 你说财富还是收入？
622
00:30:19,690 --> 00:30:22,396
财富和收入非常不同
623
00:30:22,396 --> 00:30:25,313
- 我感兴趣的是财富
624
625
00:30:25,313 --> 00:30:28,133
- 我希望如此，但我不确定
626
00:30:28,970 --> 00:30:35,070
奇怪的是，财富分配比收入分配
627
628
00:30:35,070 --> 00:30:37,100
更易受政策影响
629
00:30:37,100 --> 00:30:39,460
因为收入分配的很大部分…
630
00:30:39,460 --> 00:30:41,490
我认为财富分配
631
00:30:41,490 --> 00:30:45,200
基本上跟储蓄相关：不论是银行账户
632
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,830
股市财富、土地持有量
633
00:30:48,547 --> 00:30:53,040
还是有钱人的其他财产
634
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,610
分配给上层人士的财富
635
00:30:56,610 --> 00:30:59,960
远比年收入多
636
00:30:59,960 --> 00:31:01,820
就年收入而言
637
00:31:01,820 --> 00:31:06,270
导致不平等的一大因素
638
00:31:06,270 --> 00:31:08,290
就是知识型工作的增长和技术的提升
639
00:31:08,290 --> 00:31:12,680
基本上任何一个人、城市、州分、国家
640
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:18,240
只要提升技术和教育水平
641
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,600
都会收入更高，失业率更低
642
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,130
亦更能安然度过经济衰退
643
00:31:24,130 --> 00:31:25,810
以及应对新冠肺炎
644
00:31:25,810 --> 00:31:28,590
那部分，我不知道如何…
645
00:31:28,590 --> 00:31:30,810
正如我所说，我认为有强大力量推动
646
00:31:30,810 --> 00:31:35,320
令经济持续增长
647
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:41,940
不一定要以美国过去多年的速度增长
648
649
00:31:41,940 --> 00:31:45,470
我当然不认为…我不想谈政治
650
00:31:45,470 --> 00:31:49,040
但我肯定不认同
651
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:53,810
应该在充斥各种不平等势力的环境中
652
00:31:53,810 --> 00:31:56,730
让一直受益的人大规模减税
653
00: 31:56,730 --> 00:32:01,300
并为那些一直在受苦的人
654
00:32:01,300 --> 00:32:05,270
设置越发严格，越来越小的安全网
655
00:32:05,270 --> 00:32:09,02
这是没有意义的
656
657
658
00:32:10,590 --> 00:32:13,540
我认为若要思考社会边缘政策
659
00:32:13,540 --> 00:32:15,740
应该思考例如安全网里会有什么？
660
00:32:15,740 --> 00:32:18,180
如何将医保融入安全网？
661
00:32:18,180 --> 00:32:22,610
如何将更多教育项目纳入安全网内？
662
00:32:22,610 --> 00:32:25,920
我认为这些都是能在10年内解决的问题
663
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:32,600
但知识型工作的回报率比体力劳动高
664
665
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,143
这股力量我不认为会改变
666
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:36,097
- 这是个有趣的观点
667
00:32:36,097 --> 00:32:37,740
我想当中突出了一点
668
669
00:32:37,740 --> 00:32:43,630
就是当经济合法性和繁荣的问题
670
00:32:43,630 --> 00:32:46,050
开始变成政治问题的时刻
671
672
00:32:46,050 --> 00:32:50,650
若美国10年后仍然没有解决这些问题
673
00:32:50,650 --> 00:32:52,760
状况大抵如此
674
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,050
你如何就此展望中国的未来？
675
00:32:55,050 --> 00:32:58,010
他们对创新的要求更高
676
677
00:32:58,010 --> 00:33:02,190
而现在的年轻人亦为自己找到了
678
00:33:02,190 --> 00:33:03,910
经济中产阶级的身份
679
00:33:03,910 --> 00:33:05,773
你怎么看这样的前景？
680
00:33:07,190 --> 00:33:08,310
- 确实因为社交平台和资讯的运用
681
00:33:08,310 --> 00:33:11,240
这成为了中国以至美国社会
682
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:16,830
所面临最具挑战性的问题
683
684
00:33:16,830 --> 00:33:19,790
而在中国的情况下
685
00:33:19,790 --> 00:33:21,950
也与政府的审查制度
686
00:33:21,950 --> 00:33:30,630
及执政当局操纵信息
687
688
00:33:30,630 --> 00:33:33,260
引导民众的的能力相关
689
690
00:33:33,260 --> 00:33:39,640
在这方面，中国运作的规模
691
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,880
与其他社会颇为不同
692
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,700
我们看看年轻人——我也做了不少功课
693
00:33:45,700 --> 00:33:49,340
比如说在网络上一個叫Bilibili的平台
694
00:33:49,340 --> 00:33:51,980
现在有两代年轻人
695
00:33:51,980 --> 00:33:54,750
只看过国家日益繁荣的景象
696
00:33:54,750 --> 00:33:58,060
他们无比乐观
697
00:33:58,060 --> 00:34:01,450
但同时也很爱国
698
00:34:01,450 --> 00:34:06,610
对质疑这体制的人没什么耐心
699
700
00:34:06,610 --> 00:34:09,490
但这部分也是经过设计的
701
00:34:09,490 --> 00:34:14,130
是领导层和体制
702
703
00:34:14,130 --> 00:34:17,300
壮大民族主义者支持的方式
704
00:34:17,300 --> 00:34:19,700
并利用它
705
00:34:19,700 --> 00:34:22,570
以提高中国的竞争地位
706
00:34:22,570 --> 00:34:24,310
但当然正如Austan所说
707
00:34:24,310 --> 00:34:27,210
中国在过程中所面临的挑战
708
00:34:27,210 --> 00:34:31,150
也可能损害增长而非赢得尊重
709
00:34:31,150 --> 00:34:33,820
特别是在某些情况下
710
00:34:33,820 --> 00:34:37,190
使私营企业更难蓬勃发展
711
00:34:37,190 --> 00:34:43,880
但总体而言，中国实在硕果累累
712
00:34:41,650 --> 00:34:43,880
713
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:51,760
创建许多大型新产业：
714
715
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:53,940
例如互联网经济等
716
00:34:53,940 --> 00:34:57,510
所以我认为中国领导层面临的挑战
717
00:34:57,510 --> 00:35:02,510
是如何取得平衡，但同时保持增长
718
00:35:02,510 --> 00:35:05,150
虽然中国人口继续增长
719
00:35:05,150 --> 00:35:07,710
但还没有老龄化
720
00:35:07,710 --> 00:35:11,520
老龄化实际上还没带来显著影响
721
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,240
但在10年后
722
00:35:13,240 --> 00:35:14,890
情况就会大不相同
723
00:35:14,890 --> 00:35:17,870
因为随着生育率急剧下降
724
00:35:17,870 --> 00:35:21,608
中国人口亦会迅速老龄化
725
00:35:21,608 --> 00:35:26,270
到2030年左右
726
00:35:26,270 --> 00:35:30,220
很多老龄化的负担将开始出现
727
00:35:30,220 --> 00:35:33,780
到时中国将难以维持这种增长
728
729
00:35:33,780 --> 00:35:35,470
但当然中国领导层也有多种方法
730
00:35:35,470 --> 00:35:39,680
可以缓解这些压力和挑战
731
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,230
意味着其不仅可以加强体制的合法性
732
733
00:35:44,230 --> 00:35:52,120
同时也能找到很多其他志同道合的国家
734
735
736
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:55,720
而这其实也是我认为中国模式
737
00:35:55,720 --> 00:35:58,760
与特别是西方自由民主国家之间
738
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:03,760
可能出现的对立、挑战和紧张局势
739
00:36:03,810 --> 00:36:06,840
这样的关系会一直持续下去
740
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:11,293
也许比起Austan刚强调的更激烈
741
00:36:12,500 --> 00:36:14,560
- 是的，这是一个很好的观点
742
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,840
我在2004年写下名为《北京共识》的论文
743
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:18,940
论证当时崭露头角
744
00:36:18,940 --> 00:36:20,760
有异于《华盛顿共识》的另一种经济模式
745
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,850
里面我说
746
00:36:22,850 --> 00:36:25,850
模式中的某些元素亦可应用于其他国家
747
748
00:36:25,850 --> 00:36:28,100
但坦白说，我当时并没有真正认为
749
00:36:28,100 --> 00:36:29,630
有人会对此有如此程度的兴趣
750
00:36:29,630 --> 00:36:32,470
特别是在新冠肺炎的环境下，会有人说
751
00:36:32,470 --> 00:36:35,670
「这看来是个有趣的另类管治模式。」
752
00:36:35,670 --> 00:36:38,370
当你观察美国以及中国的反应
753
00:36:38,370 --> 00:36:39,250
以及在与人的对话中
754
00:36:39,250 --> 00:36:41,450
就自然而然地肯定…
755
00:36:41,450 --> 00:36:42,580
唯一…
756
00:36:42,580 --> 00:36:44,210
很多人都对此管治模式感到好奇
757
00:36:44,210 --> 00:36:46,003
- 对不起 - 没事，继续
758
759
00:36:46,003 --> 00:36:51,003
- 我唯一想补充的是
760
00:36:51,096 --> 00:36:55,700
中国和美国一样，可以免负某些事情的责任
761
00:36:55,700 --> 00:36:57,490
这是其他任何国家所不行的
762
00:36:57,490 --> 00:37:00,980
- 因为其经济规模实在太大 – 没错
763
00:37:00,980 --> 00:37:05,150
而美国也早就享有这个好处
764
00:37:05,150 --> 00:37:08,180
因为我们有如此巨大的国内市场
765
00:37:08,180 --> 00:37:11,110
可以从事…做愚蠢的的事情
766
00:37:11,110 --> 00:37:17,330
我们已经做了很多损害自己利益的事
767
00:37:17,330 --> 00:37:20,180
但你没有看到伤害
768
00:37:20,180 --> 00:37:21,900
因为我们的经济足够大
769
00:37:21,900 --> 00:37:25,630
我想知道如果你在其他国家
770
00:37:25,630 --> 00:37:28,203
即使是印尼这样的大国
771
00:37:29,430 --> 00:37:34,430
或者小一点的国家如马来西亚
772
00:37:34,890 --> 00:37:37,120
如果说要在当地遵循中国模式
773
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,360
要实施管控措施
774
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,050
让国营企业推动经济
775
00:37:43,050 --> 00:37:49,130
要求跨国公司与我们分享知识产权
776
777
00:37:49,130 --> 00:37:53,300
让我们拥有合资企业的所有权
778
00:37:53,300 --> 00:37:55,740
我预测这行不通
779
00:37:55,740 --> 00:37:58,370
他们可以尝试
780
00:37:58,370 --> 00:38:03,370
但中国有发展完善的市场力量因素
781
00:38:04,140 --> 00:38:09,990
其他国家难以仿效其模式
782
783
00:38:09,990 --> 00:38:10,823
- 不，不仅如此
784
00:38:10,823 --> 00:38:12,190
这引出了另一个有趣的问题
785
00:38:12,190 --> 00:38:14,090
就是文化因素
786
00:38:14,090 --> 00:38:15,810
还记得我曾跟一个在沙特阿拉伯项目
787
00:38:15,810 --> 00:38:18,460
工作的人交谈
788
00:38:18,460 --> 00:38:21,420
他们要打造一个沙特版的深圳
789
00:38:21,420 --> 00:38:23,410
我说，他们已经具备所需要的一切
790
00:38:23,410 --> 00:38:24,730
只是缺少一个关键因素
791
00:38:24,730 --> 00:38:26,220
- 就是很多中国人 – 对
792
00:38:26,220 --> 00:38:29,070
- 还有文化因素 – 对
793
00:38:29,070 --> 00:38:30,450
这一要素让一切成事
794
00:38:30,450 --> 00:38:32,090
对了，还有一件非常有趣的事
795
00:38:32,090 --> 00:38:33,710
可能这里不是讨论这个问题的合适场合
796
00:38:33,710 --> 00:38:36,150
但想想当中有什么文化差异呢，对吧？
797
00:38:36,150 --> 00:38:38,320
美国体制建基于规则
798
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,690
中国体制建基于关系
799
00:38:40,690 --> 00:38:43,420
这些元素如何共存？
800
00:38:43,420 --> 00:38:45,480
其中我想回答一个问题
801
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:46,660
我们开始回答观众提问
802
00:38:46,660 --> 00:38:48,700
有人问
803
00:38:48,700 --> 00:38:55,110
根本价值对比普世价值有何作用？
804
805
00:38:55,110 --> 00:38:56,787
写问题的人问
806
00:38:56,787 --> 00:38:58,737
你如何看待儒家伦理
807
00:38:58,737 --> 00:39:01,217
对比新教伦理的说法？
808
00:39:02,660 --> 00:39:03,970
大利，不如从你开始
809
00:39:03,970 --> 00:39:06,410
你对此有什么见解？
810
00:39:06,410 --> 00:39:08,700
- 当然，这是我所教授的内容
811
00:39:08,700 --> 00:39:11,830
也是我多方面一直思考的问题
812
00:39:11,830 --> 00:39:15,710
问题有趣的地方是
813
00:39:15,710 --> 00:39:18,520
当我们想到东西方体制
814
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,840
会发现中国的管治体制
815
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,910
其实参照了很多来自西方和日本的元素
816
00:39:23,910 --> 00:39:28,760
共产党实际上并不完全是中国组织
817
818
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:32,410
马克思主义也不完全是中国的
819
00:39:32,410 --> 00:39:34,530
但同时。特别是在过去40年里
820
00:39:34,530 --> 00:39:40,100
中国颇有借鉴或继承过去传统之意
821
822
00:39:40,100 --> 00:39:42,360
并且还借鉴了其他国家的经验
823
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:43,670
事实上，中国体制的各方面
824
00:39:43,670 --> 00:39:47,790
均结合各种不同价值观
825
00:39:47,790 --> 00:39:51,090
我也确实想强调
826
00:39:51,090 --> 00:39:52,750
中国国内就地區差異争论不休
827
00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:57,960
特别是南北區域差異
828
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,620
我们还可以看到
829
00:40:00,620 --> 00:40:03,180
地區价值和文化方面差异显著
830
00:40:03,180 --> 00:40:08,140
这些都互为影响
831
00:40:08,140 --> 00:40:09,810
而中国的优点和美国一样，地方很大
832
00:40:09,810 --> 00:40:11,277
人们某程度上可以四處遊走
833
00:40:11,277 --> 00:40:13,300
然後深圳崛起
834
00:40:13,300 --> 00:40:15,860
因为国內其他地方
835
00:40:15,860 --> 00:40:19,170
都將他们的精英和资本送到深圳
836
00:40:19,170 --> 00:40:21,360
但同时深圳又向香港借用资源
837
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,000
並与世界其他地区保持联系
838
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,470
当然，还有很多其他城市
839
00:40:26,470 --> 00:40:28,440
愿意做同样的事情
840
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,033
即使他们不会成为深圳
841
00:40:30,033 --> 00:40:31,900
但竞争也因此变得更加激烈
842
00:40:31,900 --> 00:40:35,370
中国城市之间的竞争
843
00:40:35,370 --> 00:40:37,450
令深圳变得愈加重要
844
00:40:37,450 --> 00:40:40,470
但与此同时
845
00:40:40,470 --> 00:40:44,190
我们也与世界各国和经济体建立了联系
846
00:40:44,190 --> 00:40:48,043
包括通过一带一路倡议等
847
00:40:49,032 --> 00:40:51,350
- 让我把问题扩阔一点
848
00:40:51,350 --> 00:40:53,173
某程度上
849
00:40:54,540 --> 00:40:58,570
信任是社会正常运行的必要元素，对吗？
850
851
00:40:58,570 --> 00:40:59,610
你几乎可以…
852
00:40:59,610 --> 00:41:03,697
如果你基本上视社会、国家或文化等
853
00:41:03,697 --> 00:41:08,020
为解决复杂组织问题的机器
854
00:41:08,020 --> 00:41:11,240
能让机器运转的就是信任
855
00:41:11,240 --> 00:41:14,670
东西方社会有不同方法构建信任
856
00:41:14,670 --> 00:41:17,140
两种方法均根深蒂固
857
00:41:17,140 --> 00:41:22,063
要回溯至社会之间无深入接触的时代
858
859
860
00:41:22,900 --> 00:41:26,190
当今两国社会以至全世界
861
00:41:26,190 --> 00:41:29,720
都面临着体制合法性和信任的危机
862
00:41:29,720 --> 00:41:31,700
我想也许Austan可以开始说起
863
00:41:31,700 --> 00:41:32,533
环顾美国
864
00:41:32,533 --> 00:41:34,050
今天几乎没有任何机构
865
00:41:34,050 --> 00:41:37,990
获得比十年前或二十年前更多的信任
866
867
00:41:37,990 --> 00:41:40,300
我想这取决于你怎么切分
868
00:41:40,300 --> 00:41:41,133
应该有一些人
869
00:41:41,133 --> 00:41:43,810
比20年前更加信任福斯新闻
870
00:41:43,810 --> 00:41:46,150
但一般来说，像央行
871
00:41:46,150 --> 00:41:51,150
媒体、科学家等，如今都不太受信任
872
00:41:51,770 --> 00:41:53,840
你如何看待信任
873
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,780
在经济学信息问题中的角色
874
00:41:55,780 --> 00:41:57,630
尤其是你如何看待美国的这种情况
875
00:41:57,630 --> 00:41:58,548
以及信任的重要性为何
876
00:41:58,548 --> 00:42:01,350
- 对，第一，事实令人悲伤
877
00:42:01,350 --> 00:42:04,260
我认为你对数据的描述完全正确
878
00:42:04,260 --> 00:42:08,310
从宗教机构、军队、警察
879
00:42:08,310 --> 00:42:11,430
教育机构、政府、国会
880
00:42:11,430 --> 00:42:13,900
到媒体和一切大小企业
881
00:42:13,900 --> 00:42:15,820
他们都历经衰退
882
00:42:15,820 --> 00:42:19,020
有些人比其他人更多，但无一幸免
883
00:42:19,020 --> 00:42:24,020
有一些芝加哥大学布斯商学院的经济学家
884
00:42:24,420 --> 00:42:29,480
已经有一个完整的研究脉络
885
886
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:33,470
探讨信任在金融市场
887
00:42:33,470 --> 00:42:35,440
以及签订合同时的重要性
888
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,860
并着眼于信任在社区的作用
889
00:42:38,860 --> 00:42:40,820
若人们对信任反感
890
00:42:40,820 --> 00:42:44,260
就不太愿意做交易，有更少…
891
00:42:44,260 --> 00:42:47,710
你可以想象
892
00:42:47,710 --> 00:42:49,330
我开始时说过历史
893
00:42:49,330 --> 00:42:51,470
美国有世界上最大的开放市场
894
00:42:51,470 --> 00:42:54,213
这对美国非常有利
895
00:42:54,213 --> 00:42:55,453
现在依然如此
896
00:42:56,900 --> 00:43:01,010
但随着我们丧失信任
897
00:43:01,010 --> 00:43:03,060
我们的世界就会缩小
898
00:43:03,060 --> 00:43:05,440
市场也会变小
899
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:10,440
因为你不想与世界另一端的人
900
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:11,550
还有国家另一边
901
00:43:11,550 --> 00:43:14,032
以及另一政治倾向的人交易
902
00:43:14,032 --> 00:43:17,543
我认为这反会对我们有伤害
903
00:43:19,540 --> 00:43:24,160
作为经济学家，我猜对于观众的问题
904
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:29,160
比起经济力量
905
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:33,880
我更对谁富谁穷的文化解释抱持怀疑态度
906
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:37,200
很多时候这都太过武断
907
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:39,550
我认识一个著名的老经济学家
908
00:43:39,550 --> 00:43:42,540
他是我在麻省理工学院的老师
909
00:43:42,540 --> 00:43:43,540
诺贝尔奖得主Bob Solow
910
00:43:43,540 --> 00:43:47,700
是提出增长研究中增长理论的学者
911
00:43:47,700 --> 00:43:52,320
一次访问中，媒体一度追问
912
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:57,207
增长的真正来源是什么？
913
00:43:57,207 --> 00:44:01,787
他说："归根结底，每一个经济学家
914
00:44:01,787 --> 00:44:04,227
一旦思考增长从哪里来
915
00:44:04,227 --> 00:44:06,750
最后都会堕落在业余社会学的烈火中。"
916
00:44:06,750 --> 00:44:11,560
让我们避免堕入业余社会学的火焰
917
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,390
我们要记住，曾几何时
918
00:44:14,390 --> 00:44:17,540
当日本经济表现良好时，我们倾向于说
919
00:44:17,540 --> 00:44:20,180
这是因为日本的哲学
920
00:44:20,180 --> 00:44:22,500
以及日本社会
921
00:44:22,500 --> 00:44:25,350
然后他们经济低迷了二十年
922
00:44:25,350 --> 00:44:27,510
人们又会说
923
00:44:27,510 --> 00:44:29,430
那是因为日本哲学和日本社会
924
00:44:29,430 --> 00:44:32,880
所以他们的经济才低迷了二十年的时间
925
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:37,880
我认为一些经济因素
926
00:44:37,930 --> 00:44:40,850
例如在中国人的储蓄率非常高
927
00:44:40,850 --> 00:44:43,670
他们致力提供教育
928
00:44:43,670 --> 00:44:45,403
高度重视教育
929
00:44:46,650 --> 00:44:50,430
对内有很大的开放市场
930
00:44:50,430 --> 00:44:54,150
希望出口扩大到世界
931
00:44:54,150 --> 00:44:56,190
这些东西加在一起
932
00:44:56,190 --> 00:45:00,690
就能很好地解释谁或哪些国家
933
00:45:00,690 --> 00:45:03,730
在过去的40年、50年里成功了
934
00:45:03,730 --> 00:45:07,483
跟任何文化解释一样好
935
00:45:08,390 --> 00:45:11,990
而美国某些州分和城市
936
00:45:11,990 --> 00:45:15,850
如果遵循这种模式
937
00:45:15,850 --> 00:45:17,410
表现也同样好
938
00:45:17,410 --> 00:45:22,440
所以我作为经济学家
939
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:28,880
固然理解信任是影响深远的文化元素
940
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,730
但也担心我们可能会过于武断
941
00:45:31,730 --> 00:45:36,150
只看到结果，然后试图回出一个解释
942
00:45:36,150 --> 00:45:38,650
- 是的，我认为正确思考这些事情方式
943
944
00:45:38,650 --> 00:45:40,690
是将其当作一种复杂的适应系统，对吗？
945
00:45:40,690 --> 00:45:42,620
像信任或类似机构这样的东西
946
00:45:42,620 --> 00:45:44,580
是复杂适应系统的突现特性
947
00:45:44,580 --> 00:45:47,140
能投入许多不同的资源
948
00:45:47,140 --> 00:45:48,660
大利，这个信任的问题交给你回答
949
00:45:48,660 --> 00:45:51,670
中国在某种程度上
950
00:45:51,670 --> 00:45:52,900
正在信任的基础上转型，对吗？
951
00:45:52,900 --> 00:45:56,240
这个社会，当然那是在我旅居当地的时候
952
00:45:56,240 --> 00:45:57,163
但即使是今天亦然
953
00:45:57,163 --> 00:46:01,550
说实话，20年前中国社会明显靠关系
954
955
00:46:01,550 --> 00:46:03,670
因为没有法治，对不对？
956
00:46:03,670 --> 00:46:05,330
没有规则可循
957
00:46:05,330 --> 00:46:06,760
事实上，赚最多钱的人
958
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,640
往往在一定程度上没有遵守规则
959
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:11,450
问题是，这无法规模化
960
00:46:11,450 --> 00:46:14,480
如果你只和初中同学做生意
961
962
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,880
你能做的生意是有限的
963
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:18,170
于是问题就出在
964
00:46:18,170 --> 00:46:21,730
你究竟如何建立一个复杂的信任机制
965
00:46:21,730 --> 00:46:23,700
包括通过法治或其他方面
966
00:46:23,700 --> 00:46:25,160
你如何看待这情况的发展？
967
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:29,370
你如何看今天中国的信任度和信任创建？
968
00:46:29,370 --> 00:46:32,300
与其他地方相比如何？
969
00:46:32,300 --> 00:46:33,600
信任又有多重要？
970
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,280
- 这其实真是个很好的问题
971
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,960
我想在Austan刚才提到的基础上再进一步
972
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,930
即今天中国人对教育的重视
973
00:46:43,930 --> 00:46:47,570
并非存在于中国的意外
974
00:46:47,570 --> 00:46:53,300
也非存在于其他东亚社会的意外
975
976
00:46:53,300 --> 00:46:55,170
从这个意义上讲，事情就有历史维度
977
00:46:55,170 --> 00:46:58,080
当然在某些时候
978
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:00,130
这种对教育的重视是不允许的
979
00:47:00,130 --> 00:47:01,660
比如在毛泽东时代
980
00:47:01,660 --> 00:47:04,970
但事实证明，这更多的是一种畸形现象
981
00:47:04,970 --> 00:47:09,730
而非我们倾向于看到的历史模式
982
00:47:09,730 --> 00:47:10,840
本质上，重视教育等价值
983
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:19,560
是一系列社会赖以借鉴的体制和态度
984
985
986
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,630
事实上，在中国进行的社会信任调查
987
00:47:21,630 --> 00:47:24,850
往往会低估中国人的信任程度
988
00:47:24,850 --> 00:47:28,850
部分原因是因为得出的信任度太高
989
00:47:28,850 --> 00:47:32,110
不像一个发展中的社会
990
00:47:32,110 --> 00:47:37,790
反而更像北欧国家的水平
991
992
00:47:37,790 --> 00:47:40,770
因此社会学家等人都会觉得
993
00:47:40,770 --> 00:47:44,120
也许应下调中国人很高的信任度
994
995
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:47,280
我觉得其实有很多
996
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,400
有关尊重原始数据的争论
997
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,010
部分原因是因为国家的大小
998
00:47:53,010 --> 00:47:57,304
一些通常我们用于欧洲小得多的社会里
999
00:47:57,304 --> 00:48:00,423
衡量信任的方式
1000
00:48:01,650 --> 00:48:04,530
不一定完全适用于中国
1001
00:48:04,530 --> 00:48:09,470
当人们依靠地区和其他网络时
1002
00:48:09,470 --> 00:48:11,980
比如在山东、湖南等地
1003
00:48:11,980 --> 00:48:13,860
他们并非完全依靠家庭
1004
00:48:13,860 --> 00:48:16,930
而是依靠一种共同的文化模式
1005
00:48:16,930 --> 00:48:18,550
这种文化模式可能更具地区性
1006
00:48:18,550 --> 00:48:21,710
而这种地区文化
1007
00:48:21,710 --> 00:48:23,270
可能以6000万或1000万人为基础
1008
00:48:23,270 --> 00:48:25,540
在这个意义上其实我们要重新思考
1009
00:48:25,540 --> 00:48:28,750
如何思考这类问题
1010
00:48:28,750 --> 00:48:33,900
但同时我确实认为另一边厢
1011
1012
00:48:33,900 --> 00:48:37,830
金融或其他领域的欺诈活动屡见不鲜
1013
00:48:37,830 --> 00:48:41,250
所以中国人有时，尤其是老年人
1014
00:48:41,250 --> 00:48:44,550
往往太容易相信别人
1015
00:48:44,550 --> 00:48:46,870
这也可能有负面影响
1016
00:48:46,870 --> 00:48:49,020
所以我觉得其实在某种程度上
1017
00:48:49,020 --> 00:48:52,360
信任在交易中固然是好事
1018
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,930
但在面对骗子时
1019
00:48:55,930 --> 00:48:59,100
也会成为一种负担
1020
00:48:59,100 --> 00:49:01,160
所以这是个更复杂的情况
1021
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:05,003
但为何中国在苦行主义的基础上
1022
00:49:05,003 --> 00:49:11,070
仍能利用信任？
1023
1024
00:49:11,070 --> 00:49:13,880
因为在毛泽东时代，很多东西都被剥夺
1025
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:17,890
那个时代结束后，领导决定推行新措施
1026
00:49:17,890 --> 00:49:21,247
人们就立即投入其中
1027
00:49:21,247 --> 00:49:24,240
热切拥抱机会
1028
00:49:24,240 --> 00:49:28,119
所以有很多特殊的因素
1029
00:49:28,119 --> 00:49:32,360
让中国能够建设、积累资本
1030
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:35,320
以至达到现在的水平
1031
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:39,240
但与此同时，正如我们一直提到
1032
00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:41,820
中国的人均国内生产总值仍然比较低
1033
00:49:41,820 --> 00:49:45,180
当然如果中国的的人均生产总值
1034
00:49:45,180 --> 00:49:49,270
达到美国的一半
1035
00:49:49,270 --> 00:49:51,617
就已经是世界上最大的经济体
1036
1037
00:49:51,617 --> 00:49:54,700
但同时，与许多其他国家相比
1038
1039
00:49:54,700 --> 00:49:57,830
这个社会从纺织品到太空均有投资
1040
00:49:57,830 --> 00:50:03,700
只有少数其他社会能够做到这一点
1041
1042
00:50:03,700 --> 00:50:05,920
- 是的，我想我可以如此综合信任度这点
1043
1044
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,360
而我自己亦同意
1045
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:08,780
中国可说是信任度非常高的社会
1046
00:50:08,780 --> 00:50:11,800
但同时也可说信任度非常低
1047
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,170
顺带一提，如果你在那里做生意
1048
00:50:13,170 --> 00:50:16,500
你真的最好清楚与对方的信任度如何
1049
1050
00:50:16,500 --> 00:50:19,200
但这互动也是有趣的体验
1051
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,220
最后让我来谈一谈
1052
00:50:21,220 --> 00:50:24,423
问你们一些关于我们大环境的问题
1053
1054
00:50:24,423 --> 00:50:27,370
我们处于革命性的时代
1055
00:50:27,370 --> 00:50:30,670
科技从根本上改变了
1056
00:50:30,670 --> 00:50:33,760
我们在这里讨论的很多基本前设
1057
1058
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,010
我们发现世界
1059
00:50:36,010 --> 00:50:38,210
充满了相互关联的系统
1060
00:50:38,210 --> 00:50:39,980
快速连接系统
1061
00:50:39,980 --> 00:50:43,510
以及人工智能管理的快速连接系统
1062
1063
00:50:43,510 --> 00:50:47,500
这些系统的运作和质感都与以前不同
1064
1065
00:50:47,500 --> 00:50:48,880
真的，我想我们会同意
1066
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:54,473
世界运作方式的本质都有惊人的转变
1067
1068
1069
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:56,580
而东西方社会都需要共同应对
1070
00:50:56,580 --> 00:51:01,420
当中有一套完整的规则、挑战和机遇
1071
00:50:59,010 --> 00:51:01,420
1072
00:51:01,420 --> 00:51:05,900
有种当今的主流理论
1073
00:51:05,900 --> 00:51:11,400
认为美国的正确策略是与中国脱钩
1074
1075
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:14,143
让这两个系统独立运行
1076
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:17,550
试图找到轨迹
1077
00:51:17,550 --> 00:51:20,570
让世界趋于稳定
1078
1079
00:51:20,570 --> 00:51:23,790
让人能积极参与其中
1080
00:51:23,790 --> 00:51:26,180
且有能力管理
1081
00:51:26,180 --> 00:51:28,850
我们今天人类世界所面临的全球危机
1082
00:51:28,850 --> 00:51:30,740
你如何看待这两个社会
1083
00:51:30,740 --> 00:51:33,180
各自面对这些科技问题的方法？
1084
00:51:33,180 --> 00:51:35,040
而这对未来又有什么启示？
1085
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:36,310
非常有趣的是
1086
00:51:36,310 --> 00:51:39,610
Austan你提到了蚂蚁金融的案例
1087
00:51:39,610 --> 00:51:41,820
如果我们意识到这个问题的重大之处
1088
00:51:41,820 --> 00:51:44,200
就会发现事情比报纸上读到的更复杂
1089
1090
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,320
但这清楚表明了一件事
1091
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:53,450
在中国，公司规模会有限制
1092
1093
00:51:53,450 --> 00:51:55,110
在美国经营大型科技公司的人
1094
00:51:55,110 --> 00:51:59,480
如Tim Cook和Mark Zuckerberg
1095
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,390
就像经济格局的一部分
1096
00:52:01,390 --> 00:52:02,510
政客来来去去
1097
00:52:02,510 --> 00:52:04,270
但这些人永远都在
1098
00:52:04,270 --> 00:52:07,360
在中国，即使像马云般重要的人物
1099
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:09,030
都并非经济格局的一部分
1100
00:52:09,030 --> 00:52:10,667
也许我们可以从Austan你开始
1101
1102
00:52:10,667 --> 00:52:14,640
你怎么看美国对这些事情的监管？
1103
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:16,360
我知道这是你思考过的事情
1104
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:17,864
此事也对即将上任的管治团队非常重要
1105
00:52:17,864 --> 00:52:25,950
- 好，这不像我刚提到的中国例子那样
1106
1107
1108
00:52:25,950 --> 00:52:28,850
美国也不像已经看得通透
1109
00:52:28,850 --> 00:52:33,880
我们显然面对着巨大的科技力量
1110
1111
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:38,500
这些力量为个人和企业创造财富
1112
1113
00:52:38,500 --> 00:52:42,490
带来了自19世纪末
1114
00:52:42,490 --> 00:52:47,490
或强盗男爵时代以来
1115
00:52:48,170 --> 00:52:51,170
在美国从未见过的力量
1116
00:52:51,170 --> 00:52:55,470
因此我认为美国的政治团体
1117
00:52:55,470 --> 00:53:00,470
将不得不做出一些公共决定
1118
00:53:00,850 --> 00:53:08,370
决定应让这些大科技公司掌握多少权力
1119
1120
1121
1122
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,630
抑或应该有更多的竞争
1123
00:53:13,630 --> 00:53:14,650
将来会是怎样？
1124
00:53:14,650 --> 00:53:16,580
我们或许可以得知
1125
00:53:16,580 --> 00:53:21,250
或至少应该关注中国人对蚂蚁金融的态度
1126
00:53:21,250 --> 00:53:27,640
现在的确感觉他们在划清界限
1127
1128
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:31,130
说我们只想让你们这些科技人员知道
1129
00:53:31,130 --> 00:53:32,780
我们不会容忍这种情况
1130
00:53:34,130 --> 00:53:35,510
但与此同时
1131
00:53:35,510 --> 00:53:42,680
这些电子支付系统的市占率要大得多
1132
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:46,930
其在中国消费金融的主导地位
1133
00:53:46,930 --> 00:53:51,789
比美国任何类似产业都要强
1134
1135
00:53:51,789 --> 00:53:56,150
所以我认为有一些压力
1136
00:53:56,150 --> 00:53:59,741
在气候变化方面
1137
00:53:59,741 --> 00:54:01,860
这是你正思考的另一个问题
1138
00:54:01,860 --> 00:54:06,800
对于物种减少和地球的生存危机而言
1139
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:14,950
我认为中美合作将至关重要
1140
1141
00:54:14,950 --> 00:54:18,320
在某种程度上
1142
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:21,270
最理想的事情
1143
00:54:21,270 --> 00:54:25,430
就是实用经济继续像过去十年一样
1144
00:54:25,430 --> 00:54:34,970
即可再生能源的成本大幅下降
1145
1146
1147
00:54:36,740 --> 00:54:40,810
昔日先进国家没人愿意建燃煤电厂
1148
1149
00:54:40,810 --> 00:54:42,370
因为实在太贵了
1150
00:54:42,370 --> 00:54:43,980
部分金额来自监管成本
1151
00:54:43,980 --> 00:54:48,930
部分是因为天然气价格下降
1152
00:54:50,190 --> 00:54:51,560
建燃煤电厂显然是疯了
1153
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,620
因为天然气，没有人会考虑买煤炭
1154
00:54:54,620 --> 00:54:56,430
现在，太阳能、风能和其他可再生能源
1155
00:54:56,430 --> 00:54:59,870
已经变得如此便宜
1156
00:54:59,870 --> 00:55:02,860
天然气已经不在考虑之列
1157
00:55:02,860 --> 00:55:07,000
而如果成本下降那么多
1158
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:11,403
你绝对会看到中国人说
1159
00:55:12,690 --> 00:55:17,630
效率最高、最便宜的经济增长方式
1160
1161
00:55:17,630 --> 00:55:21,540
就是减少碳污染
1162
00:55:21,540 --> 00:55:25,580
他们会接受，且看起来就像是跟我们合作
1163
1164
00:55:25,580 --> 00:55:33,020
问题是，几年前我应邀访华
1165
00:55:29,130 --> 00:55:35,930
就城市化问题演讲
1166
1167
00:55:35,930 --> 00:55:40,930
当时中国刚成为城市人口为主的国家
1168
00:55:41,390 --> 00:55:46,200
那是一件大事
1169
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:50,090
因为其时大家对中国的印象
1170
00:55:50,090 --> 00:55:51,583
绝对不是一个城市国家
1171
00:55:53,140 --> 00:55:57,390
问题是，中国城市化从美国城市化中
1172
1173
00:55:57,390 --> 00:55:59,120
得到了什么启示？
1174
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:04,120
而我说的是，中国现在的城市化程度很高
1175
00:56:04,610 --> 00:56:06,490
而且只会越来越城市化
1176
00:56:06,490 --> 00:56:09,220
如果以世界其他富国为指标
1177
00:56:09,220 --> 00:56:12,520
每个富国都是以城市地区为主
1178
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:13,700
因为当我们在城市地区共同生活时
1179
00:56:13,700 --> 00:56:16,040
生产效率会更高
1180
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:19,740
而美国已经完全去中心化
1181
00:56:19,740 --> 00:56:22,950
我们一方面做得很好，一方面也很糟糕
1182
00:56:22,950 --> 00:56:25,300
遭到灾难性的失败
1183
00:56:25,300 --> 00:56:26,950
也取得了巨大的成功
1184
00:56:26,950 --> 00:56:31,950
面对一系列的城市问题
1185
00:56:32,180 --> 00:56:35,900
就像交通是会是一个问题
1186
00:56:35,900 --> 00:56:38,790
房产和楼价是个问题
1187
00:56:38,790 --> 00:56:41,340
医疗和分娩又是一个问题
1188
00:56:41,340 --> 00:56:44,030
其中一个常年存在的问题
1189
00:56:44,030 --> 00:56:45,800
是城市污染
1190
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:50,230
美国经历了迅速发展的阶段
1191
00:56:50,230 --> 00:56:52,380
有大规模的城市污染
1192
00:56:52,380 --> 00:56:54,320
随着社会变得越来越富有
1193
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:59,530
政治团体决定我们可以减缓经济增长
1194
1195
00:56:59,530 --> 00:57:02,300
因为我们希望能够更自由地呼吸
1196
00:57:02,300 --> 00:57:05,440
我确实认为这种环境…
1197
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:08,720
中国已经变得足够富裕，进程肉眼可见
1198
00:57:08,720 --> 00:57:12,760
因此正降减其增长速度
1199
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:14,570
“我们要放慢脚步，将有环境法规
1200
00:57:14,570 --> 00:57:17,100
也会有防污染法规。”
1201
00:57:17,100 --> 00:57:20,010
我认为随着这种情况再次发生
1202
00:57:20,010 --> 00:57:22,860
我们对气候问题的兴趣
1203
00:57:22,860 --> 00:57:24,683
亦会渐趋相似
1204
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,530
- 我认为这说得太好了
1205
00:57:28,530 --> 00:57:31,950
大利，你对此有何看法？
1206
1207
00:57:31,950 --> 00:57:34,110
如何看中美两国都有能力
1208
00:57:34,110 --> 00:57:36,820
拿到这些令人难以置信的颠覆性科技
1209
00:57:36,820 --> 00:57:41,820
以及我们共同面对的生存危机？
1210
00:57:41,940 --> 00:57:45,120
- 我认为值得注意的是
1211
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:46,960
回到10年前或三年前
1212
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,990
大多数人往往认为中国的产品
1213
00:57:50,990 --> 00:57:53,990
全都复制、借鉴或窃取自美国
1214
00:57:53,990 --> 00:57:57,300
但我认为人们开始越来越看到中国
1215
00:57:57,300 --> 00:58:03,080
如何应对挑战创造新机会的挑战
1216
1217
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:05,660
看到中国的很多血汗工厂和廉价劳动力
1218
00:58:05,660 --> 00:58:08,990
促使太阳能电池板等价格下降
1219
00:58:08,990 --> 00:58:13,010
以至今天可再生能源的价格变得更低廉
1220
00:58:13,010 --> 00:58:16,370
实在很了不起
1221
00:58:16,370 --> 00:58:20,120
中国没有Robert Moses
1222
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:25,880
因此能够特别容易地发展高铁
1223
1224
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:28,030
当然与此同时
1225
00:58:28,030 --> 00:58:32,600
中国几乎绕过了Visa和万事达卡
1226
00:58:32,600 --> 00:58:37,900
一口气让大多数人直接转用电子支付
1227
1228
00:58:37,900 --> 00:58:42,540
手机亦同样，不再用固定电话
1229
00:58:42,540 --> 00:58:47,160
这种经验让中国人更勇于思考
1230
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:51,490
敢于创新，不再…
1231
00:58:51,490 --> 00:58:53,890
他们仍然会借鉴
1232
00:58:53,890 --> 00:58:56,940
仍会向矽谷借鉴学习
1233
00:58:56,940 --> 00:58:58,650
但同时随着时间推移
1234
00:58:58,650 --> 00:59:01,220
中国人的很多经验将变得更加重要
1235
00:59:01,220 --> 00:59:02,410
这正是中国领导层
1236
00:59:02,410 --> 00:59:06,320
在追求完全现代化的目标
1237
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:09,640
并且开始规划中国创新
1238
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:13,270
尤其是中国投资的未来路向时
1239
00:59:13,270 --> 00:59:18,610
将会引而为傲的一点
1240
00:59:18,610 --> 00:59:22,240
当然借鉴也有可能出现灾难性的后果
1241
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:25,950
我想世界各地
1242
00:59:25,950 --> 00:59:28,320
首先要意识到中国在做什么
1243
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:30,770
而中国在借鉴学习的同时
1244
00:59:30,770 --> 00:59:33,790
其所做的事情也会有所影响
1245
00:59:33,790 --> 00:59:35,430
因为中国投资者
1246
00:59:35,430 --> 00:59:38,100
也在非洲和其他地方
1247
00:59:38,100 --> 00:59:39,270
进行大规模投资
1248
00:59:39,270 --> 00:59:41,310
所以这些都会有影响力
1249
00:59:41,310 --> 00:59:45,490
我认为且同意在某些方面
1250
00:59:45,490 --> 00:59:49,210
中国已经开始行动，自己应对碳问题
1251
00:59:49,210 --> 00:59:52,370
但全球行动
1252
00:59:52,370 --> 00:59:54,680
比仅仅只靠中国或美国好
1253
00:59:54,680 --> 00:59:56,760
同样，在其他问题上
1254
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:59,840
中国当然会希望在制定标准方面
1255
00:59:59,840 --> 01:00:03,250
例如在6G、7G的议题上担当重要角色
1256
01:00:03,250 --> 01:00:06,200
在这方面，我们最好振作精神应对
1257
01:00:07,540 --> 01:00:10,012
- 谢谢，谢谢你们精彩的谈话
1258
1259
01:00:10,012 --> 01:00:12,680
不失大家所望
1260
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:16,640
两位杰出人才依循芝加哥大学的传统
1261
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:20,300
以事实为依据发言，没有过多抽象的理论
1262
01:00:20,300 --> 01:00:22,170
令大家获益良多
1263
01:00:22,170 --> 01:00:24,420
谢谢大家
1264
01:00:24,420 --> 01:00:26,970
谢谢两人设想全面的评论
1265
01:00:26,970 --> 01:00:31,300
希望大家都能好好休息，各位晚安
1266
01:00:31,300 --> 01:00:32,940
- 感谢Josh的总结
1267
01:00:32,940 --> 01:00:33,940
- 谢谢
1
00:00:10,500 --> 00:00:15,930
- 歡迎大家來到本系列最新活動
2
3
00:00:15,930 --> 00:00:19,483
「思想的交匯:商業與人類」
4
00:00:20,330 --> 00:00:24,170
本系列致力於研究
5
00:00:24,170 --> 00:00:27,740
商業與貿易的基本問題
6
00:00:27,740 --> 00:00:34,100
不但從商業和經濟角度分析問題
7
8
00:00:34,100 --> 00:00:37,470
更透過文化和人文探究加以觀察
9
00:00:37,470 --> 00:00:39,870
本系列由布斯商學院
10
00:00:39,870 --> 00:00:43,760
和斯特瓦諾維奇知識形成研究所
11
00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:45,980
聯合籌辦
12
13
00:00:45,980 --> 00:00:48,760
我要感謝布斯商學院院長
14
00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,770
Madhav Rajan
15
00:00:51,770 --> 00:00:53,080
還有斯特瓦諾維奇研究所所長
16
00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,720
兼古典文學系教授
17
00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,390
Shadi Bartsch
18
00:00:58,390 --> 00:01:01,763
感謝他們共同努力創立此系列
19
00:01:02,700 --> 00:01:08,330
對我來說，本系列不僅有趣
20
21
00:01:08,330 --> 00:01:10,500
和富有啟發性
22
00:01:10,500 --> 00:01:13,350
更抓住了芝加哥大學的核心價值
23
00:01:13,350 --> 00:01:17,070
也就是說，需要從多個角度
24
00:01:17,070 --> 00:01:18,960
審視複雜的問題
25
00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:21,580
理解不同觀點及考究假設
26
00:01:21,580 --> 00:01:26,390
這些都是嚴謹且富挑戰性的研究本質
27
28
00:01:26,390 --> 00:01:36,350
亦為大學整體教研工作的特性
29
30
31
00:01:36,350 --> 00:01:38,660
今天的討論題目
32
00:01:38,660 --> 00:01:41,153
是東西方經濟學
33
00:01:42,370 --> 00:01:45,330
院長Rajan稍後
34
00:01:45,330 --> 00:01:47,360
將正式介紹與會講者和主持人
35
00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,720
他們都是我的好朋友
36
00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,410
我想表達我個人
37
00:01:53,410 --> 00:01:55,750
對Austan Goolsbee教授
38
00:01:55,750 --> 00:01:59,150
和楊大利教授的謝意
39
00:01:59,150 --> 00:02:02,120
亦感謝我們學院的著名校友
40
00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,560
Joshua Cooper Ramo今天參加活動
41
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:09,150
很高興見到各位，亦歡迎Joshua回到母校
42
00:02:09,150 --> 00:02:11,810
現在我將把時間交給Madhav
43
00:02:11,810 --> 00:02:14,713
他將介紹講者和主持人
44
00:02:18,420 --> 00:02:20,110
- 謝謝校長Zimmer先生
45
00:02:20,110 --> 00:02:22,590
大家好，無論你身在何處
46
00:02:22,590 --> 00:02:24,810
晚上好或早上好
47
00:02:24,810 --> 00:02:26,730
正如Robert所說，我是Madhav Rajan
48
00:02:26,730 --> 00:02:28,440
是芝加哥大學布斯商學院院長
49
00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,540
暨George Pratt Shultz會計學教授
50
00:02:31,540 --> 00:02:33,270
我謹代表布斯商學院
51
00:02:33,270 --> 00:02:35,880
和芝加哥大學
52
00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:37,850
斯塔瓦諾維奇知識形成研究所
53
00:02:37,850 --> 00:02:39,580
歡迎大家來到
54
00:02:39,580 --> 00:02:42,980
「思想的交匯:商業和人類」講座
55
00:02:42,980 --> 00:02:46,480
很高興能跟各位介紹我們今天優秀的講者
56
00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,440
Austan Goolsbee在芝加哥大學布斯商學院
57
00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,010
任Robert P. Gwinn經濟學教授
58
00:02:51,010 --> 00:02:52,730
曾在華盛頓
59
00:02:52,730 --> 00:02:55,180
擔任經濟顧問委員會主席
60
00:02:55,180 --> 00:02:57,640
和總統內閣成員
61
00:02:57,640 --> 00:02:59,420
他的研究贏得了富布萊特學人
62
00:02:59,420 --> 00:03:02,590
和斯隆研究獎的認可
63
00:03:02,590 --> 00:03:05,350
此前，他獲世界經濟論壇評為
64
00:03:05,350 --> 00:03:08,270
百位明日世界領袖之一
65
00:03:08,270 --> 00:03:10,650
並獲《金融時報》評為
66
00:03:10,650 --> 00:03:12,123
六位前瞻未來的大師之一
67
00:03:13,490 --> 00:03:15,540
Austan能夠清晰解釋經濟學
68
00:03:15,540 --> 00:03:18,400
因而廣受媒體歡迎
69
00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:19,750
John Stewart形容其為
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「Eliot Ness與Milton Friedman的混合體」
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Austan曾兩次獲《商業周刊》
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於「最佳商學院申請指南」評為明星教授
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非常感謝Austan參與此講座
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- 謝謝
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楊大利是現任校長高級顧問
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和大學國際事務處處長
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協助制定及推行
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大學在教研和合作方面
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的全球戰略和倡議
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為我們的學院和學生
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創造及持續提供國際機會
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特別關注中國
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和東亞其他地區
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大利是政治科學系和學院
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William Claude Reavis教授
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曾在2010年到2016年6月期間
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擔任芝加哥大學北京中心
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創始主任
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促進大學各方的合作與交流
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亦是芝加哥全球事務委員會
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特邀資深研究員
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感謝大利出席講座
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- 謝謝
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- 歡迎
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我們的主持人正如Bob所說
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是本校校友Joshua Cooper Ramo
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他是Sornay私人顧問和投資公司
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董事長兼行政總裁
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Joshua曾擔任首席中國顧問
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負責完成價值超過2000億美元的交易
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並與中國最重要的商業金融機構
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一起領導投資
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在此之前，Joshua在基辛格協會
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擔任了15年行政總裁和副主席
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亦曾為《時代》雜誌
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外文編輯和高級編輯
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他是兩本《紐約時報》暢銷書的作者
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兩書均已翻譯成20多種語言
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分別是《不可思議的年代》
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和《第七感》
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感謝Joshua主持今天的講座
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主題為東西方經濟學，將時間交給你
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- 非常感謝
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很高興來到這裏，與各位共聚
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我想既然我們的活動
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由斯特瓦諾維奇知識形成研究所協辦
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而且根據芝加哥大學的優良傳統
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開始思考將來要往何方之前
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要先深入挖掘事物的根源
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因此我們可以先從兩個不同的維度
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介紹經濟學的背景知識
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大利，我想想聽聽你的想法
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當你回顧歷史的時候
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能否解釋或追溯經濟學
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作為政治行為
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作為政治責任的演變過程
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當我們開始思考現況時
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你會強調其中哪些重要的元素
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- 有很多方面
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第一個想法是，因為對我來說
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當我想到你問的問題時
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我會思考經濟體制有多現代化
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例如中央銀行系統
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直到20世紀初才存在
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此前中國和世界許多地方的貨幣
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都以貴金屬等為基礎
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但與此同時，在中國的情況中
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傳統管治制度
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著重的是學者學習儒家學說
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特別是通過考試
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中選成為領導國家的人
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當然，經濟碰巧是其中一部分
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同時，中國傳統中
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一直強調真正重視學術智慧
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這在某種程度上
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貶低了商業交易的重要性
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即使事實上
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中國是最早採用紙幣的社會之一
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此情況好壞參半，部分原因是事實上
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中國在許多方面都是前現代的
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有一套既定做法
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但同時缺乏對經濟的系統性思考
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尤其是經濟如何與制度互動
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以及全球經濟如何互相聯繫
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事實上，一直以來
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中國經濟固然與全球接軌
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但同時也有其限度
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特別是在清朝
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很強調限制與全球經濟互動
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- 對，我認為這點很重要
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亦很有意義
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我們看亞洲時
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會理解到在未來20到25年
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該地區將會出現
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巨大的經濟增長
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但也理解許多經濟概念
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均建基於啟蒙運動、工業革命
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或科學革命至關重要的價值
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某程度上，這些都是亞洲的進口商品
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也許這點
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剛好讓我們可以轉向西方視角
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看這一視角下
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經濟哲學的發展
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西方對世界的思考方式
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某程度上確實與啟蒙運動、文藝復興
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和工業革命的進程齊頭並進
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你們如何看待經濟史？
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我們未雨綢繆，展望將來之際
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有何重要里程碑可以回顧？
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- 是的，這些問題都很深層次
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亦實屬意料之內
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當你說我們要從頭開始說
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我就想，哦，不
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是伯羅奔尼撒戰爭
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我得去重新複習
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我在芝加哥大學學到的東西
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我想我會把問題
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分為經濟學史和經濟史
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在經濟方面
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美國之所以能成為
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世界上最富有的主要經濟體
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實在是循序漸進的過程
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由天賦大量自然資源開始
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因此美國早期和中期的經濟發展
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乃以大量資源為基礎
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類似於南非、澳大利亞
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或智利、阿根廷等模式
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美國擁有世界上最大的開放市場
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在美國國內可以進行的貿易中
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他們有意識地在憲法中規定
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州際貿易不能徵收關稅
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這對美國的經濟歷史非常重要
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然後到20世紀，開始有大規模投資
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一部分源自政府
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一部分則為個人投資
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投資範圍涵蓋基礎建設、技術、科學
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而僅僅是美國普通勞動人口的教育水平
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就已快速和大大提高
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00:10:04,590 --> 00:10:08,770
這一切讓我們走上經濟發展的道路
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00:10:08,770 --> 00:10:13,130
從經濟學的角度來看
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我們有點起起伏伏，左右搖擺
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經濟危機往往引致學術危機
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我們質疑自己在做什麽？
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是不是都搞錯了？
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如果各位願意的話
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我們也可以談談經濟學專業峰會
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但從20世紀初到中葉的歷史時期
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我們都採用極度自由放任主義
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認為那是唯一可行的經濟哲學
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及後宏觀經濟學百花齊放
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到了21世紀，行為經濟學飽受重視
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當中結合心理學對經濟的見解
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大量增加數據的使用
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加上微觀經濟學成就顯著
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與宏觀經濟學的重要程度不分上下
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雖然兩者有一點分野
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但我認為經濟發展與經濟學發展一致
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- 是的，這是個有趣的開始
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也許可以連結到現況
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因為美國不同群體之間
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顯然正處於非常激烈和活躍的辯論之中
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資深經濟學家
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和受過頂級學術訓練的諾貝爾獎得主
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對正確的未來路向各持己見
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00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:41,420
也許我要問的問題是
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身為經濟學家，從學術角度來看
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你認為我們眼前的問題容易解決嗎？
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能否分析？
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00:11:49,990 --> 00:11:51,840
是否已是全新領域的問題？
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00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,960
也許還可以從政策制定者的角度看
257
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你該如何調整？
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你如何應對
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如何應對超出模型預測的世界？
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- 對，兩者我都有一點，愈超出⋯
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在新冠疫情出現之前
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我認為美國面臨的最大問題之一
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是一種觀望的心態
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我們只需要等待一切恢復正常
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00:12:25,790 --> 00:12:27,230
他們把正常定義為2005年
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00:12:27,230 --> 00:12:32,780
而2005年其實並不正常
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房地產泡沫正在肆虐
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很多奇怪事情都在發生
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如果你我只是不停地說
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如果你在等2005年的巴士回來接你
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把你送回正常的城市
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你其實是在搭便車
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你還懵然不知，因為沒有車
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公共汽車已經停駛
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現在，我認為新冠疫情的經歷
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讓這變得更加真實
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因為這個商業周期
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衰退和復蘇
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都與之前不一樣
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與經濟無關
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受到衝擊的行業
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是很多我們一直認為不受衰退影響的行業
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00:13:13,510 --> 00:13:17,630
富裕的大經濟體
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00:13:17,630 --> 00:13:19,390
發達的西方經濟體都由服務行業所主導
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如醫療保健經濟、個人服務、休閑娛樂
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旅行和旅遊業
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佔美國經濟的75%到80%
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通常不會在經濟衰退時下跌
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然後新冠疫情來襲，每個人都說
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我不想看到熊市
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好吧，他們一直都不想看到熊市
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我說點不同的
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我不會去健身房
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不會去餐館，不會去辦公室
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00:13:47,070 --> 00:13:51,310
直到新冠疫情結束
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你可以看到這種緊張的情緒
303
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而這種情緒亦是你問題的前設
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領先的經濟學家和政策制定者
305
00:14:02,540 --> 00:14:05,810
試圖把當前的經驗塞進模型
306
00:14:05,810 --> 00:14:09,820
擬合商業周期的數據
307
00:14:09,820 --> 00:14:12,500
但這些數據與現況並無關係
308
00:14:12,500 --> 00:14:15,860
他們在預測經濟會花多久復蘇
309
310
00:14:15,860 --> 00:14:19,360
經濟復蘇會否引致通貨膨脹？
311
00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:25,240
這些全都基於1975或1995年的數據
312
313
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:29,570
我認為我們應該撫心自問
314
00:14:29,570 --> 00:14:32,760
因為這些模型明顯不起作用
315
00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:36,100
- 這確實就是我認為經濟學
316
00:14:36,100 --> 00:14:38,100
和經濟學家討論的有趣之處
317
00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:39,300
對
318
00:14:39,300 --> 00:14:45,230
你的認知模型在制定政策時非常重要
319
00:14:45,230 --> 00:14:46,690
正如你所指出的，我想我們所有人…
320
00:14:46,690 --> 00:14:48,340
你會希望大家理解
321
00:14:48,340 --> 00:14:51,140
我們生活在許多方面脫離常態的時代
322
00:14:51,140 --> 00:14:53,030
事情發展越來越快
323
00:14:53,030 --> 00:14:55,081
而許多事情又相互關連
324
00:14:55,081 --> 00:14:57,970
從政策的角度來看
325
00:14:57,970 --> 00:14:59,890
這顯然非常具有挑戰性
326
00:14:59,890 --> 00:15:02,720
我想，在這個意義上
327
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:06,110
東西方都面臨著前所未見的事情
328
00:15:06,110 --> 00:15:08,520
大利或許可以就這方面提供見解
329
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,970
中國取得了人類歷史上的空前成就
330
331
00:15:10,970 --> 00:15:12,900
幫助了數億人脫貧
332
00:15:12,900 --> 00:15:14,760
快速工業化
333
00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:21,970
並以驚人速度轉型至資訊型經濟
334
335
00:15:21,970 --> 00:15:25,360
我從2002年起就在中國生活和工作
336
337
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,040
曾在去年11至12月到訪中國
338
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:28,873
現在與當時的景況已經截然不同
339
00:15:28,873 --> 00:15:30,646
新冠疫情…
340
00:15:30,646 --> 00:15:31,503
你會聽到人說新冠疫情
341
00:15:31,503 --> 00:15:34,040
根本可說是原先發展的加速器
342
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:35,690
加速推動人們在家看電影
343
00:15:35,690 --> 00:15:38,190
進行錄像會議和網上購物
344
00:15:38,190 --> 00:15:41,730
亦可能加速了美中之間的緊張局勢
345
346
00:15:41,730 --> 00:15:44,100
從而大大增加中國的內需
347
00:15:44,100 --> 00:15:46,673
這無疑加速了新意識的出現
348
349
00:15:46,673 --> 00:15:49,860
但現在他們將繼續嘗試
350
351
00:15:49,860 --> 00:15:51,280
達成歷史上未曾做到過的事情
352
00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,633
習近平說改革進入深水區
353
00:15:56,010 --> 00:15:58,630
這屬於哪一種經濟模式？
354
00:15:58,630 --> 00:16:01,810
我們能從經濟政策策劃者
355
00:16:01,810 --> 00:16:05,017
的政治生態中學到什麽？
356
00:16:05,017 --> 00:16:06,860
一個驚人的統計數字
357
00:16:06,860 --> 00:16:07,960
一直深植於我腦內
358
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:09,720
就是在1981年
359
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,550
中國省級黨委書記
360
00:16:11,550 --> 00:16:13,963
的平均教育程度是小學五年級
361
00:16:15,050 --> 00:16:16,730
12月份我到訪中國時
362
00:16:16,730 --> 00:16:19,310
我與一名省委書記會面
363
00:16:19,310 --> 00:16:21,010
他們很多人都擁有…
364
00:16:21,010 --> 00:16:25,100
明顯可以觀察到知識水平的優勢
365
366
00:16:25,100 --> 00:16:26,310
但在處理人類歷史上
367
00:16:26,310 --> 00:16:27,610
從未見過的事情時
368
00:16:27,610 --> 00:16:28,443
還是幫不上忙
369
00:16:28,443 --> 00:16:31,776
那麽大利，你會如何分析這種情況？
370
371
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,500
首先，在許多方面
372
00:16:37,500 --> 00:16:46,020
中國在武漢最初爆發疫症時應對失誤
373
374
00:16:46,020 --> 00:16:48,360
但同時我們可以看到
375
00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,390
中國領導層事實上對武漢亦有對策
376
00:16:50,390 --> 00:16:53,880
最終確信這是一種傳染性高的新疾病
377
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:58,430
並果斷決定封鎖1100萬人口的城市
378
379
00:16:58,430 --> 00:17:01,240
但部分原因
380
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,230
是當中許多人事實上
381
00:17:04,230 --> 00:17:05,680
我最近幾個月已經研究了很久
382
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,340
那就是許多人曾經應對非典型肺炎
383
00:17:08,340 --> 00:17:10,800
包括習近平主席本人也是
384
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,270
從很多方面來說，那是同一批人
385
00:17:13,270 --> 00:17:17,700
他們曾在2003年處理非典型肺炎疫情
386
00:17:17,700 --> 00:17:22,700
對非典有記憶
387
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:24,910
並在當年隔離了成千上萬的人
388
00:17:24,910 --> 00:17:27,020
現在他們決定做同樣的事情，但規模更大
389
00:17:27,020 --> 00:17:29,940
但與此同時，正如你正確指出
390
00:17:29,940 --> 00:17:32,180
其實在許多方面⋯
391
00:17:32,180 --> 00:17:38,140
中國在2003年才剛加入世貿
392
393
00:17:38,140 --> 00:17:41,060
當時其經濟規模要小得多
394
00:17:41,060 --> 00:17:42,740
但其現已是14、15萬億美元的經濟體
395
00:17:42,740 --> 00:17:51,363
因此感受到的影響更為重大
396
397
00:17:51,750 --> 00:17:54,050
但我的感覺是在這種背景下
398
00:17:54,050 --> 00:17:57,080
中國領導層仍能在各方面
399
00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,933
逐漸且迅速地找到穩定模式
400
00:17:59,933 --> 00:18:04,500
處理經濟和流行疫症
401
00:18:04,500 --> 00:18:08,720
這充分說明了中國現時與2003年的不同
402
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,990
更不用說在2003年
403
00:18:10,990 --> 00:18:13,170
世界衛生組織對中國
404
00:18:13,170 --> 00:18:18,170
發出旅遊警示
405
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:23,620
中國深受疫情困擾
406
407
00:18:23,620 --> 00:18:29,400
需要為此向鄰近國家道歉等
408
409
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,610
而這次，事實上
410
00:18:32,610 --> 00:18:35,085
中國領導人真的採取了非常不同的方式
411
00:18:35,085 --> 00:18:38,950
他們在1月20日
412
00:18:38,950 --> 00:18:40,370
就果斷地進行干預
413
00:18:40,370 --> 00:18:44,200
同時也在分析、應對病毒
414
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,040
以及與國際聯手合作方面
415
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,510
也採取了非常強硬的立場
416
00:18:49,510 --> 00:18:50,970
我認為從很多方面來說
417
00:18:50,970 --> 00:18:55,143
他們將公共衛生
418
00:18:55,143 --> 00:18:57,060
融入經濟管理
419
00:18:57,060 --> 00:18:59,690
以及其對管理經濟的理解當中
420
00:18:59,690 --> 00:19:01,890
當然，眾所周知
421
00:19:01,890 --> 00:19:04,910
回到經濟學專業的問題
422
00:19:04,910 --> 00:19:07,920
和管治方法的問題上
423
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:09,320
中國領導人其實一方面
424
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,110
參考Milton Friedman的理論
425
00:19:11,110 --> 00:19:13,220
他在1988年曾經到訪北京
426
00:19:13,220 --> 00:19:16,731
但同時亦保持一定距離
427
00:19:16,731 --> 00:19:21,731
維持國營企業的強勢發展
428
00:19:23,410 --> 00:19:25,270
投資關鍵產業
429
00:19:25,270 --> 00:19:28,013
我認為他們其實更相信
430
00:19:28,013 --> 00:19:29,790
這是他們需要做的事情
431
00:19:29,790 --> 00:19:32,690
但同時世界其他地方正在發生變化
432
433
00:19:32,690 --> 00:19:35,490
對中國的反應也在改變
434
00:19:35,490 --> 00:19:37,680
這意味著其實在某些領域
435
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,840
特別是在創新、半導體等領域
436
437
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,490
我們將會看到未來
438
00:19:45,490 --> 00:19:46,860
各方面將有更加激烈的互動
439
00:19:46,860 --> 00:19:49,100
我認為中國領導層
440
00:19:49,100 --> 00:19:51,510
對此有很多看法
441
00:19:51,510 --> 00:19:54,483
其中一部分是將中國經濟
442
00:19:54,483 --> 00:19:58,630
完全現代化
443
00:19:58,630 --> 00:20:00,570
令其在國際間擁有強大經濟實力
444
00:20:00,570 --> 00:20:03,223
而且經濟規模應當超越美國經濟
445
00:20:04,430 --> 00:20:07,000
所以大利，其中一個元素
446
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:11,743
顯然是盡力擴大中產階層
447
00:20:12,690 --> 00:20:13,660
我們從歷史中知道
448
00:20:13,660 --> 00:20:16,300
中產階級是個不可思議的穩定因素
449
00:20:17,830 --> 00:20:20,460
人類在19世紀學到的最大教訓
450
00:20:16,300 --> 00:20:17,830
而俾斯麥和以色列人等亦明白此點
451
452
00:20:20,460 --> 00:20:21,660
那就是民眾一旦進入中產階級
453
00:20:21,660 --> 00:20:22,610
就不想要革命
454
00:20:22,610 --> 00:20:28,480
他們不會想燒掉剛買的房子
455
456
00:20:28,650 --> 00:20:32,140
這不僅是經濟或收入的問題
457
458
00:20:32,140 --> 00:20:33,190
如果你認為孩子的生活
459
00:20:33,190 --> 00:20:35,210
會比你更好
460
00:20:35,210 --> 00:20:36,820
而且對未來滿有憧憬
461
00:20:36,820 --> 00:20:38,890
就似乎是在中產階級
462
00:20:38,890 --> 00:20:40,040
當然，這也是我們看到
463
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,340
在中國大量擴張的事情
464
00:20:42,340 --> 00:20:46,240
你對這一進展有何看法？
465
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,810
我認為這可能這也關係到
466
00:20:48,810 --> 00:20:50,690
一個可能很有趣的問題
467
00:20:50,690 --> 00:20:53,030
即經濟作為政治體系合法性的根基
468
00:20:53,030 --> 00:20:57,573
應如何與其他問題妥善平衡？
469
470
00:20:58,830 --> 00:21:01,810
- 我認為關鍵是要記住
471
00:21:01,810 --> 00:21:05,410
中國仍然是共產黨執政
472
00:21:05,410 --> 00:21:08,940
事實上，領導層正發起一場新運動
473
474
00:21:08,940 --> 00:21:14,450
引導共產黨成員學習黨史
475
476
00:21:14,450 --> 00:21:18,810
在這種情況下，其實要時刻記住的問題
477
00:21:18,810 --> 00:21:20,730
不僅是經濟增長
478
00:21:20,730 --> 00:21:24,400
還有財富分配和公義的問題
479
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,570
事實上，如果你回顧過去
480
00:21:27,570 --> 00:21:29,700
你會非常清楚
481
00:21:29,700 --> 00:21:32,460
政策其中一部分
482
00:21:32,460 --> 00:21:34,250
是讓中國家庭擁有自己的房產
483
00:21:34,250 --> 00:21:38,170
例如，現在90%的中國家庭擁有房產
484
00:21:38,170 --> 00:21:40,330
數字比美國高得多
485
00:21:40,330 --> 00:21:42,570
當然土地是另一個問題
486
00:21:42,570 --> 00:21:45,730
與此同時，在過去的2015年
487
00:21:45,730 --> 00:21:48,010
習主席發起了一場重大運動
488
00:21:48,010 --> 00:21:52,780
旨在在2020年前消除赤貧
489
00:21:52,780 --> 00:21:57,061
他才剛剛慶祝實現目標
490
491
00:21:57,061 --> 00:22:04,420
並計劃把扶貧委員會變成新的鄉村振興局
492
493
00:22:04,420 --> 00:22:06,270
從這個意義上說
494
00:22:06,270 --> 00:22:10,340
增長和公平之間的平衡
495
00:22:10,340 --> 00:22:12,300
已經列入了當前領導層的議程
496
00:22:12,300 --> 00:22:15,400
他們認為這對於維持增長動力
497
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,910
以及穩定至關重要
498
00:22:18,910 --> 00:22:22,780
他們也認為
499
00:22:22,780 --> 00:22:25,210
這有助於持續推動創新
500
00:22:25,210 --> 00:22:28,080
以及應付內部需求
501
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,820
因為只有一小部分富有人口的國家
502
00:22:30,820 --> 00:22:33,020
所對應的需求
503
00:22:33,020 --> 00:22:36,430
與財富廣泛分佈和共享的國家
504
00:22:36,430 --> 00:22:40,500
並不相同
505
00:22:40,500 --> 00:22:41,442
這樣來看的話
506
00:22:41,442 --> 00:22:42,730
我認為中國領導層
507
00:22:42,730 --> 00:22:47,470
確有一套有關財富分配等政策的指引
508
509
00:22:47,470 --> 00:22:50,490
事實上，他們一直堅定不移
510
00:22:50,490 --> 00:22:54,240
且非常強硬地推行這些政策
511
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:55,810
某程度上說
512
00:22:55,810 --> 00:22:58,620
習近平在很多方面
513
00:22:58,620 --> 00:23:00,650
都是最了解各項危機的領導者
514
00:23:00,650 --> 00:23:06,600
其策略旨在消除重大危機
515
516
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,870
他認為貧困是危機
517
00:23:09,870 --> 00:23:12,870
財富再分配是危機
518
00:23:12,870 --> 00:23:15,320
實際上，所有這些問題都在其議程上
519
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,720
希望平衡經濟
520
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,553
同時尋找國家、社會和經濟的平衡
521
00:23:22,522 --> 00:23:23,590
- 我認為這是一個很好的觀點
522
00:23:23,590 --> 00:23:25,853
Austan，也許你能就此提供一點見解
523
00:23:27,180 --> 00:23:31,420
美國中產階級的衰落可否逆轉？
524
00:23:31,420 --> 00:23:36,070
你能想像美國中產階級依然蓬勃嗎？
525
526
00:23:36,070 --> 00:23:39,740
還是這些力量太強大
527
00:23:39,740 --> 00:23:42,230
或這些不平等太過根深蒂固
528
00:23:42,230 --> 00:23:44,550
以致問題無法經調控解決？
529
00:23:44,550 --> 00:23:47,453
- 我不知道調控能否解決問題
530
00:23:49,130 --> 00:23:53,246
造成不平等的力量是根深蒂固的
531
00:23:53,246 --> 00:23:55,210
你必須思考
532
00:23:55,210 --> 00:23:57,115
因為這已經是30、40、50年的事
533
00:23:57,115 --> 00:23:59,890
也就是說
534
00:23:59,890 --> 00:24:04,820
這些問題只會隨年月愈滾愈大
535
00:24:04,820 --> 00:24:07,480
而且就像你之前提到
536
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,370
新冠疫情等等的事件
537
00:24:09,370 --> 00:15,390
更加放大並迫使人們面對這些問題
538
539
00:24:15,390 --> 00:24:21,050
基本上，如果你在知識型經濟中工作
540
541
00:24:21,050 --> 00:24:23,963
你可以在家裏完成部分或所有工作
542
00:24:24,820 --> 00:24:27,340
因此真的不會經歷衰退
543
00:24:27,340 --> 00:24:32,070
如果你看看他們的股票市場財產
544
545
00:24:32,070 --> 00:24:36,130
那是上升的
546
00:24:36,130 --> 00:24:38,610
他們的收入沒有下降
547
00:24:38,610 --> 00:24:41,610
失業率對他們來說仍然很低
548
00:24:41,610 --> 00:24:44,640
他們沒有經歷衰退
549
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:45,610
如果你看看低收入職業
550
00:24:45,610 --> 00:24:48,730
人們不得不去實體場所工作
551
00:24:48,730 --> 00:24:52,740
不論是侍應、看護人等亦然
552
00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:54,770
他們就像經歷經濟大蕭條
553
00:24:54,770 --> 00:24:57,690
失業率達到兩位數
554
00:24:57,690 --> 00:25:02,073
可能接近20%
555
00:25:03,300 --> 00:25:05,340
問題是，與中國相比
556
00:25:05,340 --> 00:25:07,640
我在某程度上我持有相反觀點
557
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,950
但我先從前提說起
558
00:25:13,140 --> 00:25:18,930
如果中國的人口是美國的四倍
559
560
00:25:18,930 --> 00:25:21,390
但經濟規模沒有美國大
561
00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:25,870
這說明中國的人均收入
562
00:25:25,870 --> 00:25:28,780
比美國低得多
563
00:25:28,780 --> 00:25:35,840
只有美國收入水平的四分之一或更少
564
565
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:40,840
思考美中經濟關係的正確方式
566
567
00:25:47,090 --> 00:25:49,940
絕對不是要這兩個強大的競爭對手
568
00:25:49,940 --> 00:25:52,430
直接比拼
569
00:25:52,430 --> 00:25:56,800
美國經濟的絕大部分
570
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:57,960
與世界其他地區無關
571
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,080
我們主要是一個本土經濟大國
572
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,830
至於相似部分
573
00:26:03,830 --> 00:26:08,410
中國與墨西哥等國家更能直接對比
574
00:26:08,410 --> 00:26:13,240
墨西哥的人均收入比中國高15至20%
575
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,360
但這是中等收入
576
00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:19,810
中高收入國家的頂點水平
577
00:26:19,810 --> 00:26:24,360
中國經濟大致與此國際水平相似
578
00:26:24,360 --> 00:26:29,360
長遠來看，我其實覺得有點樂觀
579
00:26:29,460 --> 00:26:32,430
我知道我們剛剛走出這場可怕的衝突
580
00:26:32,430 --> 00:26:36,340
就像胸口發悶一般
581
00:26:36,340 --> 00:26:43,213
叩問上帝貿易戰接下來會如何
582
583
00:26:44,490 --> 00:26:47,050
但我認為，如果我們在10年後
584
00:26:47,050 --> 00:26:52,050
小組再共聚一堂
585
00:26:52,250 --> 00:26:54,410
相信到時美中經濟關係中
586
00:26:54,410 --> 00:26:57,710
許多緊張局勢將會消失
587
00:26:57,710 --> 00:27:00,663
因為隨著中國變得越來越富裕
588
00:27:03,515 --> 00:27:06,150
其經濟自然會看起來
589
00:27:06,150 --> 00:27:07,520
更像現在的富裕國家
590
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,150
也就是說，由醫療保健、金融服務
591
00:27:11,150 --> 00:27:16,970
教育、旅遊、休閑和娛樂等服務主導
592
593
00:27:16,970 --> 00:27:19,340
這些行業在中國會慢慢擴展
594
00:27:19,340 --> 00:27:23,620
是自然而起的國內需求
595
00:27:23,620 --> 00:27:26,014
我認為中國的領導層知道這一點
596
00:27:26,014 --> 00:27:28,950
他們想朝這個方向前進
597
00:27:28,950 --> 00:27:32,500
當這種情況發生時
598
00:27:32,500 --> 00:27:34,540
我想這種緊張的局勢可能減緩
599
00:27:34,540 --> 00:27:39,540
而中國領導層面臨的挑戰
600
00:27:40,450 --> 00:27:45,450
是下一步回到你所描述的政策
601
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,860
進入改革的深水區
602
00:27:49,860 --> 00:27:52,430
這看起來不同於從非常貧窮
603
00:27:52,430 --> 00:27:56,600
提升至中高收入的過程
604
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,525
進程空前快速和巨大
605
00:27:59,525 --> 00:28:02,340
這本身就令人讚嘆
606
00:28:02,340 --> 00:28:05,250
但是現在領導層必須作出選擇
607
00:28:05,250 --> 00:28:10,150
但他們看來似乎躊躇不前
608
609
00:28:10,150 --> 00:28:14,720
因為國營企業佔有的經濟比率
610
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:22,640
一旦進入中產收入的水平
611
612
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,840
通常就會大大下降
613
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,100
以至於被私營企業取代
614
00:28:29,100 --> 00:28:31,040
在中國，你還沒有真正看到
615
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,500
國營企業的佔有率下降
616
00:28:33,500 --> 00:28:36,610
他們在富裕程度相若的國家之中
617
00:28:36,610 --> 00:28:39,493
擁有最高的國營企業佔有率
618
00:28:40,340 --> 00:28:44,440
當然，我們也看到螞蟻集團的事情
619
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,591
我不知道人們是否看到
620
00:28:46,591 --> 00:28:51,591
阿里巴巴的金融分公司進行首次公開招股
621
00:28:51,770 --> 00:28:54,690
這很可能是全世界史上
622
00:28:54,690 --> 00:28:56,230
最大型的首次公開招股
623
00:28:57,820 --> 00:29:01,560
而中國政府基於一些我們知道的原因
624
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:02,800
以及一些我們仍在了解的原因
625
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,200
某種程度上打擊了此企業
626
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:10,200
並取消了其首次公開招股
627
00:29:10,830 --> 00:29:14,740
報道稱，政府覺得
628
00:29:14,740 --> 00:29:19,380
一些領導人的敵對家族或敵人
629
00:29:19,380 --> 00:29:22,364
可從招股中獲益
630
00:29:22,364 --> 00:29:24,413
所以不希望活動發生
631
00:29:25,380 --> 00:29:30,380
我不知道保持中央黨派的控制
632
00:29:30,420 --> 00:29:36,810
如何能跟變得富有和創新連上關係
633
634
00:29:36,810 --> 00:29:38,370
他們也許能成功
635
00:29:38,370 --> 00:29:42,100
但我認為那會是緊張局勢的來源
636
637
00:29:42,100 --> 00:29:44,467
在我們請大利回應之前
638
639
00:29:44,467 --> 00:29:47,033
讓我快速回到美國體制的問題
640
00:29:48,500 --> 00:29:53,510
你有信心所有深層次的不公⋯
641
642
00:29:53,510 --> 00:29:57,423
坦白說，這些問題愈演愈烈
643
00:29:58,550 --> 00:30:03,750
許多時候甚至超出能調控的範圍
644
00:30:03,750 --> 00:30:05,561
調控可能不是正確方案
645
00:30:05,561 --> 00:30:07,450
我不知道做什麼才正確，改革是否正確答案
646
00:30:07,450 --> 00:30:09,250
我不確定
647
00:30:09,250 --> 00:30:11,580
但我的意思是
648
00:30:11,580 --> 00:30:14,900
如果我們10年後再坐到這裏
649
00:30:14,900 --> 00:30:15,160
你認為到時美國的財富分配會更平等嗎？
650
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,160
這將如何實現？
651
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,690
- 財富還是收入？
652
00:30:19,690 --> 00:30:22,420
財富和收入很不一樣
653
00:30:22,420 --> 00:30:25,010
- 我對財富感興趣
654
00:30:25,010 --> 00:30:28,133
- 我希望如此，但我不確定
655
00:30:29,742 --> 00:30:32,300
奇怪的是，財富分配
656
00:30:32,300 --> 00:30:37,100
比收入分配更受政策影響
657
00:30:37,100 --> 00:30:39,460
因為收入分配的很大部份⋯
658
00:30:39,460 --> 00:30:41,490
我認為財富分配
659
00:30:41,490 --> 00:30:45,200
基本上跟儲蓄相關：不論是銀行賬戶
660
661
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,830
股市財富、土地持有量
662
663
00:30:49,830 --> 00:30:53,040
還是有錢人家的其他財產
664
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,610
分配給上層人士的財富
665
00:30:56,610 --> 00:30:59,960
遠比年收入多
666
00:30:59,960 --> 00:31:01,820
就年收入而言
667
00:31:01,820 --> 00:31:05,660
導致不平等的一大因素
668
00:31:05,660 --> 00:31:08,290
就是知識型工作的增長和技術的提升
669
00:31:08,290 --> 00:31:12,680
基本上任何人、城市、州份或國家
670
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,740
只要提升技能和教育水平
671
00:31:15,740 --> 00:31:18,240
都表現良好
672
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,600
不僅能提高收入，更能降低失業率
673
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,130
以及更安然度過衰退
674
00:31:24,130 --> 00:31:25,810
也更能應對新冠疫情
675
00:31:25,810 --> 00:31:28,590
那部份，我不知道如何⋯
676
00:31:28,590 --> 00:31:30,810
正如我所說，我認為有強大力量推動
677
00:31:30,810 --> 00:31:35,320
令經濟繼續增長
678
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:41,940
不一定以美國過去多年的速度增長
679
680
681
00:31:41,940 --> 00:31:43,740
我當然不認為⋯
682
00:31:43,740 --> 00:31:46,710
我不想說得太政治化
683
00:31:46,710 --> 00:31:49,040
但對我來說，我當然不認為
684
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:50,950
在充斥各種不平等勢力的環境中
685
00:31:50,950 --> 00:31:56,730
應該讓受益者大規模減稅
686
687
00:31:56,730 --> 00:32:01,300
並為受苦者建立越來越嚴格
688
00:32:01,300 --> 00:32:05,270
且越來越小的安全網
689
00:32:05,270 --> 00:32:09,023
這是沒有意義的
690
00:32:10,590 --> 00:32:13,540
我認為就社會邊緣政策而言
691
00:32:13,540 --> 00:32:15,740
比如安全網裏會有什麽？
692
00:32:15,740 --> 00:32:18,180
如何將醫療保健融入安全網？
693
00:32:18,180 --> 00:32:22,610
如何在安全網中融入更多教育項目？
694
00:32:22,610 --> 00:32:25,920
我認為這些都是10年內可以處理的問題
695
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,720
但是知識型工作比體力工作
696
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,600
擁有更高回報率這股根本力量
697
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,143
我看不出會有什麽變化
698
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:36,430
- 這個觀點很有意思
699
00:32:36,430 --> 00:32:38,999
我認為當中突出了一點
700
00:32:38,999 --> 00:32:43,630
就是當經濟合法性和繁榮的問題
701
00:32:41,570 --> 00:32:43,630
702
00:32:43,630 --> 00:32:46,050
開始變成政治問題的時刻
703
00:32:46,050 --> 00:32:47,490
若美國10年後
704
00:32:47,490 --> 00:32:48,910
沒有解決以上問題
705
00:32:48,910 --> 00:32:52,050
這就很可能會發生
706
00:32:52,050 --> 00:32:55,010
你如何就此前瞻中國的未來？
707
00:32:55,010 --> 00:32:58,010
他們對創新的要求更高
708
709
00:33:58,010 --> 00:33:02,190
現在年輕人為自己找到了
710
00:33:02,190 --> 00:33:03,910
經濟中產階級的身份
711
00:33:03,910 --> 00:33:06,110
你如何看待他們的前景？
712
00:33:07,190 --> 00:33:11,860
確實，因為社交平台和資訊的運用
713
00:33:11,860 --> 00:33:14,440
這成為了中國以至美國社會
714
00:33:14,440--> 00:33:18,003
所面臨最具挑戰性的問題
715
716
717
00:33:18,003 --> 00:33:20,160
在中國的情況中
718
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:21,950
也與政府審查
719
00:33:21,950 --> 00:33:30,593
和執政當局操縱資訊
720
721
722
00:33:30,593 --> 00:33:33,260
引導群眾的能力有關
723
724
00:33:33,260 --> 00:33:37,970
在這方面，中國運作的規模
725
00:33:37,970 --> 00:33:41,140
與其他社會非常不同
726
00:33:41,140 --> 00:33:43,433
事實上，我們看看年輕人——
727
00:33:44,891 --> 00:33:46,940
我也做了非常多功課
728
00:33:46,940 --> 00:33:49,340
例如一個叫做Bilibili的網站
729
00:33:49,340 --> 00:33:51,980
現在有兩代年輕人
730
00:33:51,980 --> 00:33:54,750
只看過國家日益繁榮的景象
731
00:33:54,750 --> 00:33:57,490
他們非常樂觀
732
00:33:57,490 --> 00:34:00,170
但同時也非常愛國
733
00:34:00,170 --> 00:34:07,300
對質疑體制的人無甚耐性
734
735
736
00:34:07,300 --> 00:34:09,490
但這某程度也是經過設計的
737
00:34:09,490 --> 00:34:14,730
是領導層和體制
738
739
740
00:34:14,730 --> 00:34:17,300
壯大民族主義者支持的方式
741
00:34:17,300 --> 00:34:22,570
以此提高中國的競爭地位
742
743
00:34:22,570 --> 00:34:26,470
但當然，正如Austan所說
744
00:34:26,470 --> 00:34:31,120
中國在過程中所面臨的挑戰
745
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,820
也可能損害增長而非獲得尊重
746
00:34:33,820 --> 00:34:35,950
尤其在某些情況下
747
00:34:35,950 --> 00:34:38,350
這使得私營企業更難蓬勃發展
748
00:34:38,350 --> 00:34:41,650
但是總的來說
749
00:34:41,650 --> 00:34:43,880
中國實在非常成功
750
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:50,500
創建許多大型新產業
751
752
00:34:50,500 --> 00:34:53,940
例如互聯網經濟等
753
00:34:53,940 --> 00:34:56,810
我認為中國領導層面臨的挑戰
754
00:34:56,810 --> 00:35:00,050
是如何取得平衡
755
00:35:00,050 --> 00:35:02,510
但同時保持增長
756
00:35:02,510 --> 00:35:05,940
雖然中國人口持續增長
757
00:35:05,940 --> 00:35:07,710
但還沒有老齡化
758
00:35:07,710 --> 00:35:11,520
老齡化事實上並無帶來劇烈影響
759
760
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,630
但是在10年後
761
00:35:13,630 --> 00:35:15,860
情況將會非常不同
762
00:35:15,860 --> 00:35:20,050
因為隨著生育率急劇下降
763
00:35:17,870 --> 00:35:22,880
中國人口將迅速老齡化
764
765
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,310
到2030年左右
766
00:35:26,310 --> 00:35:30,220
許多老齡化的負面影響將開始顯現
767
00:35:30,220 --> 00:35:33,780
到時中國將更難維持這種增長
768
769
00:35:33,780 --> 00:35:35,120
但當然，中國領導人有多種方法
770
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:39,680
可以緩解這些壓力和挑戰
771
772
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:46,040
意味著其不僅可以加強體制合法性
773
774
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:52,120
更能找到不少想法類似的國家
775
776
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:55,720
這就是我認為中國模式
777
00:35:55,720 --> 00:35:58,760
與特別是西方自由民主國家之間
778
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:03,650
可能出現的對立、挑戰和緊張關係
779
00:36:03,650 --> 00:36:06,840
這樣的關係會持續
780
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:11,293
也許比Austan剛強調的更激烈
781
00:36:12,500 --> 00:36:13,557
- 是的，這是個很好的觀點
782
00:36:13,557 --> 00:36:16,560
我在2004年
783
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,200
撰寫名為《北京共識》的論文
784
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:19,033
論證當時嶄露頭角
785
00:36:19,033 --> 00:36:21,520
有異於華盛頓共識的另一種經濟模式
786
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,236
裏面我說過
787
00:36:24,236 --> 00:36:28,100
當中某些元素亦可應用於其他國家
788
00:36:28,100 --> 00:36:29,630
但坦白說，當時我並不認為你會看到
789
00:36:29,630 --> 00:36:31,460
有人會對此表現如此程度的興趣
790
00:36:31,460 --> 00:36:33,430
尤其在新冠疫情的環境中，說
791
00:36:33,430 --> 00:36:35,670
「這看來是個有趣的替代管治模式。」
792
00:36:35,670 --> 00:36:38,370
當你看觀察美國和中國的反應
793
00:36:38,370 --> 00:36:39,397
然後跟別人談起時
794
00:36:39,397 --> 00:36:41,450
自然而然地就肯定⋯
795
00:36:41,450 --> 00:36:42,580
唯一⋯
796
00:36:42,580 --> 00:36:43,580
很多人都對此管治模式感到好奇
797
00:36:45,170 --> 00:36:46,003
- 對不起 - 不，請說
798
00:36:46,003 --> 00:36:48,573
- 我唯一要補充的是
799
00:36:51,607 --> 00:36:55,700
中國跟美國一樣
800
00:36:55,700 --> 00:36:57,250
可以逃脫別人無法逃脫的責任
801
00:36:57,250 --> 00:36:59,776
因為其經濟規模實在過於龐大
802
00:36:59,776 --> 00:37:00,609
- 沒錯
803
00:37:00,609 --> 00:37:05,150
- 對，美國也已經受益很長時間
804
805
00:37:05,150 --> 00:37:08,180
因為我們有這麽大的國內市場
806
00:37:08,180 --> 00:37:09,340
我們可以參與…
807
00:37:09,340 --> 00:37:11,110
做一些愚蠢的事情
808
00:37:11,110 --> 00:37:13,516
我們做了很多
809
00:37:13,516 --> 00:37:17,330
危害自己利益的事情
810
00:37:17,330 --> 00:37:20,180
但是你沒有看到損害
811
00:37:20,180 --> 00:37:21,900
因為我們經濟體足夠大
812
00:37:21,900 --> 00:37:25,630
我想知道如果你看其他國家
813
00:37:25,630 --> 00:37:28,203
甚至是像印尼這樣的大國
814
00:37:29,430 --> 00:37:32,793
或者是較小的國家，比如馬來西亞
815
00:37:33,700 --> 00:37:34,890
如果他們說
816
00:37:34,890 --> 00:37:37,120
我們將遵循中國模式
817
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,360
我們將實施控制措施
818
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,050
讓國營企業來推動經濟
819
00:37:43,050 --> 00:37:45,920
要求跨國公司
820
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,680
來與我們分享他們的知識產權
821
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,590
並給予我們合資企業的所有權
822
00:37:51,590 --> 00:37:53,630
這並不會行得通，我認為不會
823
00:37:55,167 --> 00:37:59,940
他們可以嘗試
824
00:37:59,940 --> 00:38:04,140
但中國具備市場力量的元素
825
00:38:04,140 --> 00:38:07,890
發展非常完善
826
00:38:07,890 --> 00:38:09,990
令其他國家更難仿效其模式
827
00:38:09,990 --> 00:38:10,900
- 不，不僅如此
828
00:38:10,900 --> 00:38:12,610
這引出了另一個有趣的問題
829
00:38:12,610 --> 00:38:14,090
就是文化的問題
830
00:38:14,090 --> 00:38:16,760
我記得我跟一個在沙特阿拉伯項目
831
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,722
工作的人談過話
832
00:38:18,722 --> 00:38:21,420
他們要建造一個沙特阿拉伯版的深圳
833
00:38:21,420 --> 00:38:24,730
我說，他們已經萬事俱備
834
835
00:38:24,730 --> 00:38:25,563
只欠一個關鍵因素
836
00:38:25,563 --> 00:38:26,410
- 就是很多中國人 - 對
837
00:38:26,410 --> 00:38:27,897
- 還有文化因素 - 對
838
00:38:28,970 --> 00:38:30,450
這一要素讓一切成事
839
00:38:30,450 --> 00:38:32,090
順帶一提一件有趣的事
840
00:38:32,090 --> 00:38:33,710
這可能不是討論話題的合適場合
841
00:38:33,710 --> 00:38:35,703
但想想當中有什麼文化差異呢，對嗎？
842
843
00:38:37,410 --> 00:38:38,320
美國體制建基於規則
844
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,690
中國體制建基於關係
845
00:38:40,690 --> 00:38:43,420
這些元素如何共存？
846
00:38:43,420 --> 00:38:46,313
其中我想回答一個問題
847
848
00:38:46,313 --> 00:38:48,700
我們開始回答聽眾提問
849
850
00:38:48,700 --> 00:38:49,533
有人問
851
00:38:49,533 --> 00:38:54,800
根本價值對比普世價值有何作用？
852
853
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:56,870
觀眾寫下的問題是
854
00:38:56,870 --> 00:38:57,820
你如何看待儒家倫理
855
00:38:57,820 --> 00:39:01,050
對比新教倫理的說法？
856
00:39:02,660 --> 00:39:03,970
大利，不如從你開始
857
00:39:03,970 --> 00:39:06,410
你對此有什麽看法？
858
00:39:06,410 --> 00:39:08,700
- 當然，這是我教授的內容
859
00:39:08,700 --> 00:39:11,830
也是我一直多方面思考的問題
860
00:39:11,830 --> 00:39:12,900
問題有趣的部份是
861
00:39:12,900 --> 00:39:16,280
我們想想東西方體制
862
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:17,330
會發現中國的管治體制
863
00:39:17,330 --> 00:39:23,910
其實很多時參照了西方和日本的做法
864
865
00:39:23,910 --> 00:39:28,760
共產黨本身並非全然為中國組織
866
867
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,810
馬克思主義也不完全是中國的
868
00:39:30,810 --> 00:39:34,530
但與此同時
869
00:39:34,530 --> 00:39:37,620
特別是在過去的40年裏
870
00:39:37,620 --> 00:39:40,100
中國非常願意借鑒或承傳過去傳統
871
00:39:40,100 --> 00:39:42,360
也從世界其他地方借鑒
872
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:45,095
事實上，其在不同方面
873
00:39:45,095 --> 00:39:48,510
均結合不同價值觀
874
00:39:48,510 --> 00:39:51,770
我還想強調
875
00:39:51,770 --> 00:39:54,450
中·國內部就地區差異爭論不休
876
00:39:54,450 --> 00:39:57,960
尤其是南北之間的差異
877
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,620
我們也可以看到地區價值觀和文化
878
00:40:00,620 --> 00:40:03,180
差異顯著
879
00:40:03,180 --> 00:40:05,090
這一切都互為影響
880
00:40:05,090 --> 00:40:08,140
而中國的優點
881
00:40:08,140 --> 00:40:09,810
是其地方和美國一樣大
882
00:40:09,810 --> 00:40:11,277
人們可以在一定程度上四處遊走
883
00:40:11,277 --> 00:40:13,300
然後深圳崛起
884
00:40:13,300 --> 00:40:15,707
因為國內其他地方
885
00:40:15,707 --> 00:40:19,170
將自己的精英和資本都送到深圳
886
00:40:19,170 --> 00:40:21,360
同時深圳亦向香港借來資源
887
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,000
並與世界其他地方連結
888
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:25,780
當然，也有很多其他城市
889
00:40:25,780 --> 00:40:28,440
願意做同樣的事情
890
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,400
儘管他們不會成為深圳
891
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:31,900
但國家也因此變得更有競爭力
892
00:40:31,900 --> 00:40:35,370
中國城市之間的競爭
893
00:40:35,370 --> 00:40:37,450
令深圳變得愈加重要
894
00:40:37,450 --> 00:40:40,470
但與此同時，我們也與世界各國家
895
00:40:40,470 --> 00:40:44,190
和經濟體建立了聯繫
896
00:40:44,190 --> 00:40:47,863
包括通過「一帶一路」倡議等等
897
00:40:49,350 --> 00:40:51,350
讓我稍稍擴展問題
898
00:40:51,350 --> 00:40:56,530
信任是社會正常運作的必要條件之一
899
900
00:40:56,530 --> 00:40:58,820
對嗎？
901
00:40:58,820 --> 00:41:01,660
你幾乎可以⋯
902
00:41:01,660 --> 00:41:03,730
如果你基本視社會、國家或文化
903
00:41:03,730 --> 00:41:08,020
為解決複雜組織問題的機器
904
00:41:08,020 --> 00:41:11,240
要令機器運作的方式就是信任
905
00:41:11,240 --> 00:41:14,670
兩個社會各自有不同建立信任的方法
906
00:41:14,670 --> 00:41:17,140
兩種方法均根深蒂固
907
00:41:17,140 --> 00:41:22,063
要回溯到社會之間仍毫無交雜的時候
908
909
910
00:41:22,900 --> 00:41:25,100
今天，兩國社會以至全世界
911
00:41:25,100 --> 00:41:29,720
都面臨著制度合法性和信任的危機
912
913
00:41:29,720 --> 00:41:31,700
我想，也許從Austan開始說起
914
00:41:31,700 --> 00:41:32,533
你看看美國
915
00:41:32,533 --> 00:41:34,050
幾乎沒有一個機構
916
00:41:34,050 --> 00:41:38,195
比10年或20年前更受人信任
917
918
00:41:38,195 --> 00:41:40,190
看你怎麽界定
919
00:41:40,190 --> 00:41:41,023
可能有些人比20年前
920
00:41:41,023 --> 00:41:43,810
更信任霍士新聞
921
00:41:43,810 --> 00:41:46,150
但是總的來說，現在像中央銀行
922
00:41:46,150 --> 00:41:51,150
如媒體、科學家等
923
00:41:52,190 --> 00:41:53,840
都已經不太受人信任
924
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,120
你怎麼看信任在經濟學資訊問題中的角色
925
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:56,690
特別在於美國的情況
926
00:41:56,690 --> 00:41:58,770
以及信任有多重要？
927
00:41:58,770 --> 00:42:01,350
- 第一，事實令人悲傷
928
00:42:01,350 --> 00:42:04,260
我認為你對數據的描述
929
00:42:04,260 --> 00:42:07,040
是100%正確的
930
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:10,010
從宗教機構、軍隊、警察
931
00:42:10,010 --> 00:42:12,530
教育機構、政府、國會
932
00:42:12,530 --> 00:42:13,900
到媒體和所有大小企業
933
00:42:13,900 --> 00:42:15,820
全都經歷衰退
934
00:42:15,820 --> 00:42:16,216
有些人可能更水深火熱
935
00:42:16,216 --> 00:42:19,216
但無一倖免
936
00:42:19,216 --> 00:42:24,216
芝加哥大學布斯商學院有幾個經濟學家
937
00:42:24,420 --> 00:42:28,590
他們有一整套研究
938
00:42:28,590 --> 00:42:30,750
探討信任在金融市場
939
00:42:30,750 --> 00:42:34,590
和合約制定中的重要性
940
00:42:34,590 --> 00:42:37,297
同時著眼信任於社區的作用
941
00:42:37,297 --> 00:42:40,820
若人們對信任反感
942
00:42:40,820 --> 00:42:44,260
則比較不願意做交易，有更少⋯
943
00:42:44,260 --> 00:42:45,830
你可以想像
944
00:42:45,830 --> 00:42:47,710
我開始時說過歷史背景
945
00:42:47,710 --> 00:42:51,470
美國擁有世界上最大的開放市場
946
947
00:42:51,470 --> 00:42:54,207
這是美國的一大優勢
948
00:42:54,207 --> 00:42:55,453
現在仍然如此
949
00:42:56,900 --> 00:43:01,010
隨著人與人之間喪失信任
950
00:43:01,010 --> 00:43:03,060
我們的世界亦將相應縮小
951
00:43:03,060 --> 00:43:05,440
讓我們的市場變小
952
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,260
因為你不想和世界另一邊
953
00:43:08,260 --> 00:43:10,440
國家另一邊
954
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,220
或另一政治傾向的人進行交易
955
00:43:13,220 --> 00:43:17,543
我認為這將會反傷害到我們自己
956
00:43:19,540 --> 00:43:24,160
身為經濟學家，我猜就著觀眾的問題
957
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:28,880
我比起經濟力量
958
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:33,880
更對誰富誰窮的文化解釋抱持懷疑態度
959
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,290
很多時候這實在過於武斷
960
00:43:37,290 --> 00:43:39,550
我認識一個著名的老經濟學家
961
00:43:39,550 --> 00:43:42,540
是我在麻省理工學院的老師Bob Solow
962
00:43:42,540 --> 00:43:43,540
他曾獲諾貝爾獎
963
00:43:43,540 --> 00:43:47,700
是提出增長研究中增長理論的學者
964
965
00:43:47,700 --> 00:43:52,391
一次訪問中，媒體問他
966
00:43:52,391 --> 00:43:55,280
經濟增長的真正來源自什麽？
967
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:59,370
他說：「歸根究底
968
00:43:59,370 --> 00:44:01,502
每個深思經濟增長來源的經濟學家
969
00:44:01,502 --> 00:44:06,657
最終都會在業餘社會學的熱焰中倒下。」
970
971
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,560
讓我們避免在業餘社會學的熱焰中倒下
972
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,390
記住我們曾經傾向
973
00:44:14,390 --> 00:44:15,820
在日本經濟表現良好的一段時間
974
00:44:15,820 --> 00:44:19,913
將現象歸因於日本哲學
975
976
00:44:19,913 --> 00:44:22,500
以及日本社會
977
00:44:22,500 --> 00:44:25,350
接著他們衰退了二十年
978
00:44:25,350 --> 00:44:27,437
當時人們轉而表示
979
00:44:27,437 --> 00:44:29,410
「他們經濟衰敗二十年
980
00:44:29,410 --> 00:44:32,880
是因為日本社會和哲學的緣故。」
981
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:37,880
我認為當中有一些經濟因素
982
00:44:37,930 --> 00:44:40,850
比如中國儲蓄率很高
983
00:44:40,850 --> 00:44:43,670
他們致力提供教育
984
00:44:43,670 --> 00:44:45,403
重視教育
985
00:44:46,650 --> 00:44:49,790
中國內部擁有巨大的開放市場
986
00:44:49,790 --> 00:44:54,150
希望擴展出口至全世界
987
988
00:44:54,150 --> 00:44:56,190
這些因素相互疊加
989
00:44:56,190 --> 00:45:00,690
就能妥善解釋
990
00:45:00,690 --> 00:45:03,730
過去40、50年內有誰成功了
991
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:03,730
有哪些國家成功了
992
00:45:03,730 --> 00:45:07,483
效果不亞於文化解釋
993
00:45:08,390 --> 00:45:12,700
美國某些州份和城市
994
00:45:12,700 --> 00:45:15,850
均遵循同樣的模式
995
00:45:15,850 --> 00:45:17,410
而成效亦同樣顯著
996
00:45:17,410 --> 00:45:22,410
我認為身為經濟學家
997
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:28,880
我們理解信任是影響深遠的文化元素
998
999
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:30,750
但我也擔心我們過於武斷
1000
00:45:30,750 --> 00:45:33,260
看到結果
1001
00:45:33,260 --> 00:45:36,150
然後才馬後炮地回想解釋
1002
00:45:36,150 --> 00:45:38,300
- 對，我認為思考這些問題的正確方式
1003
1004
00:45:38,300 --> 00:45:40,690
是將其當作一套複雜的適應系統，對嗎？
1005
00:45:40,690 --> 00:45:42,590
像信任或類似機構這樣的事物
1006
00:45:42,590 --> 00:45:44,890
是複雜適應系統的突現性質
1007
00:45:44,890 --> 00:45:47,140
能投入不少資源
1008
00:45:47,140 --> 00:45:48,660
大利，這個信任的問題交給你回答
1009
00:45:48,660 --> 00:45:51,160
中國在某程度上
1010
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:52,900
正在信任的基礎上轉型，對嗎？
1011
00:45:52,900 --> 00:45:57,000
這個社會
1012
00:45:55,380 --> 00:45:57,000
當然那是我旅居當地的時候
1013
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:58,770
但即使是今天亦然
1014
00:45:58,770 --> 00:46:01,570
老實說，20年前中國社會顯然靠關係運行
1015
00:46:02,430 --> 00:46:03,503
因為沒有法治，對嗎？
1016
00:46:03,503 --> 00:46:05,330
沒有規則可循
1017
00:46:05,330 --> 00:46:06,440
事實上，賺最多錢的人
1018
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:09,640
往往在某程度上未有遵守規則
1019
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:11,450
但問題是無法擴展業務
1020
00:46:11,450 --> 00:46:12,300
如果你只和初中同學做生意
1021
00:46:12,300 --> 00:46:16,880
你實際能做的生意會很有限
1022
1023
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:18,400
所以問題是你如何
1024
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,730
真正建立一個複雜的信任機制
1025
00:46:21,730 --> 00:46:23,700
包括透過法治和其他方面建立
1026
00:46:23,700 --> 00:46:25,160
你如何看待這種演變？
1027
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:25,993
你覺得現今中國的信任程度如何
1028
00:46:25,993 --> 00:46:30,300
以及如何創造信任？
1029
00:46:30,300 --> 00:46:31,133
和其他地方相比如何？
1030
00:46:31,133 --> 00:46:33,483
信任又有多重要？
1031
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,280
- 這是一個很好的問題
1032
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,960
我想在Austan剛提到的基礎上
1033
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,930
加以補充
1034
00:46:43,930 --> 00:46:47,570
也就是說，今天中國人強調教育
1035
00:46:47,570 --> 00:46:50,530
因為這並不是存在於中國的偶然
1036
00:46:50,530 --> 00:46:53,300
也不是存在於其他東亞社會的偶然
1037
00:46:53,300 --> 00:46:55,170
從這個意義上說
1038
00:46:55,170 --> 00:46:56,930
整件事就存有歷史維度
1039
00:46:56,930 --> 00:47:00,130
雖然在某些時候
1040
00:47:00,130 --> 00:47:01,660
這種對教育的重視當然不被允許
1041
00:47:01,660 --> 00:47:03,330
比如在毛澤東時代
1042
00:47:03,330 --> 00:47:07,391
但這現在被證明是一種偏差
1043
00:47:07,391 --> 00:47:09,730
而不是我們傾向於看到的歷史模式
1044
00:47:09,730 --> 00:47:12,990
本質上，其實重視教育等價值
1045
1046
00:47:12,990 --> 00:47:19,560
是一系列社會賴以借鑒的制度和態度
1047
1048
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,630
事實上，對中國社會信任度的調查
1049
00:47:21,630 --> 00:47:24,850
傾向於低估中國的信任度
1050
00:47:24,850 --> 00:47:28,850
部分原因是得出的信任度太高
1051
1052
00:47:47:28,850 --> 00:47:36,860
不像發展中國家的水平
1053
00:47:36,860 --> 00:47:38,590
更像北歐國家的水平
1054
00:47:38,590 --> 00:47:40,047
因此社會學家和其他人會說
1055
00:47:40,047 --> 00:47:44,910
「我們應該下調中國社會的信任度。」
1056
1057
00:47:44,910 --> 00:47:47,280
我認為事實上有很多
1058
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,210
有關尊重原始數據的爭論
1059
00:47:49,210 --> 00:47:53,010
部分原因是因為國家的大小
1060
1061
00:47:53,010 --> 00:47:57,157
我們在歐洲
1062
00:47:57,157 --> 00:47:58,640
衡量信任度的一些常用方法
1063
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:00,423
通常用於小得多的社會
1064
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,530
可能並不完全適用於中國
1065
00:48:04,530 --> 00:48:08,710
當人們依賴其地區和其他網絡時
1066
00:48:08,710 --> 00:48:10,847
例如山東、湖南等
1067
00:48:12,075 --> 00:48:13,990
他們並非完全依賴家庭
1068
00:48:13,990 --> 00:48:16,203
而是依賴一種共享文化
1069
00:48:16,203 --> 00:48:18,550
這種文化可能更具地區性
1070
00:48:18,550 --> 00:48:20,520
而這種地區文化
1071
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:23,270
可能以600、1000萬人為基礎
1072
00:48:23,270 --> 00:48:24,173
從這個意義上說
1073
00:48:24,173 --> 00:48:27,000
我們實際上必須重新思考
1074
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:28,750
如何思考這些問題
1075
00:48:28,750 --> 00:48:34,220
但同時我認為另一邊廂
1076
1077
00:48:34,220 --> 00:48:37,830
中國在金融和其他領域
1078
00:48:37,830 --> 00:48:39,310
也有很多欺詐個案
1079
00:48:39,310 --> 00:48:41,250
有時中國人，特別是老年人
1080
00:48:41,250 --> 00:48:43,340
太容易相信別人
1081
00:48:43,340 --> 00:48:46,870
這也可能帶來負面後果
1082
00:48:46,870 --> 00:48:50,030
我認為在某程度上
1083
00:48:50,030 --> 00:48:52,360
信任在交易中固然是好事
1084
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,930
但有時與騙子等打交道時
1085
00:48:55,930 --> 00:48:59,100
也可能成為負資產
1086
00:48:59,100 --> 00:49:01,160
所以情況更顯矛盾
1087
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,010
但是為什麽中國
1088
00:49:04,010 --> 00:49:11,493
近年在禁欲主義的基礎上仍能利用信任
1089
1090
1091
00:49:11,493 --> 00:49:12,326
那是因為在毛澤東時代
1092
00:49:12,326 --> 00:49:16,380
太多東西被剝奪
1093
00:49:16,380 --> 00:49:20,060
那個時代結束以後
1094
00:49:20,060 --> 00:49:21,483
領導層決定推出新措施
1095
00:49:21,483 --> 00:49:23,280
人們就立即投入其中
1096
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,040
渴望擁抱機會
1097
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,244
有很多特殊的因素
1098
00:49:28,244 --> 00:49:31,210
讓中國能夠建設、積累資本
1099
00:49:31,210 --> 00:49:35,320
以至達到現在的水平
1100
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:39,240
但與此同時，正如我們一直提到
1101
1102
00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:41,820
其人均國家生產總值仍然相對較低
1103
00:49:41,820 --> 00:49:45,760
當然，如果中國的人均國家生產總值
1104
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:49,270
達到美國的一半
1105
00:49:49,270 --> 00:49:50,103
就早已成為世界最大的經濟體了，對嗎？
1106
1107
00:49:51,617 --> 00:49:53,720
但與此同時，與許多其他國家相比
1108
00:49:53,720 --> 00:49:58,750
這個社會從紡織業到太空均有投資
1109
1110
00:49:58,750 --> 00:50:03,700
很少有其他社會能夠做到
1111
00:50:03,700 --> 00:50：06,303
- 對，我認為可以這麼總結信任度這點
1112
1113
00:50:06,303 --> 00:50:07,136
而我亦同意
1114
00:50:07,136 --> 00:50:08,780
中國既可謂一個信任度很高的社會
1115
00:50:08,780 --> 00:50:11,800
也可說信任度很低
1116
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,193
順帶一提，如果你在那裏做生意
1117
00:50:13,193 --> 00:50:15,460
你最好搞清楚與對方的信任度如何
1118
00:50:15,460 --> 00:50:19,200
但這互動亦是有趣的體驗
1119
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:20,540
最後在結束講座之際
1120
00:50:20,540 --> 00:50:22,240
讓我問問你們一些
1121
00:50:22,240 --> 00:50:23,590
關於我們大環境的問題
1122
00:50:23,590 --> 00:50:27,370
我們處於革命性的時代
1123
1124
00:50:27,370 --> 00:50:30,230
科技正在徹底改變
1125
00:50:30,230 --> 00:50:33,760
我們在這裏討論的許多潛在假設
1126
1127
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,730
我們發現這個世界
1128
00:50:36,730 --> 00:50:37,970
充滿相互關聯的系統
1129
00:50:37,970 --> 00:50:39,790
系統能極快速連結
1130
00:50:39,790 --> 00:50:41,960
並由人工智能操作
1131
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:47,667
運作和觸感都與之前不同
1132
1133
1134
00:50:47,667 --> 00:50:48,880
真的，我想我們都會同意
1135
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:54,600
世界運作方式的本質都有驚人的轉變
1136
1137
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:59,010
而東西方社會都必須共同應對
1138
00:50:59,010 --> 00:51:02,400
當中有一整套規則、挑戰和機遇
1139
1140
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:06,870
有一種主流理論認為
1141
00:51:06,870 --> 00:51:11,410
美國的正確策略是與中國脫鉤
1142
1143
00:51:11,410 --> 00:51:14,143
讓這兩個系統獨立運行
1144
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:18,300
試著找到軌跡
1145
00:51:18,300 --> 00:51:20,570
讓世界達到穩定的狀態
1146
00:51:20,570 --> 00:51:22,760
讓人能積極參與
1147
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,410
且有能力管理
1148
00:51:24,410 --> 00:51:28,850
我們今天面臨的全球人類世存在危機
1149
1150
00:51:28,850 --> 00:51:30,010
你們認為這兩個社會
1151
00:51:30,010 --> 00:51:32,120
各自面對這些科技問題的方法如何？
1152
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:35,040
而這又對未來有什麼啟示？
1153
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:36,040
很有趣的是
1154
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:39,610
Austan你提到了螞蟻金融的案例
1155
00:51:39,610 --> 00:51:41,640
如果我們意識到此事的重大之處
1156
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51: 4,200
就會發現事情比報紙報導更複雜
1157
1158
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,320
但這清楚地表明了一件事
1159
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:50,390
在中國
1160
00:51:50,390 --> 00:51:52,510
公司規模會有一定限度
1161
00:51:52,510 --> 00:51:53,630
在美國，像Tim Cook
1162
00:51:53,630 --> 00:51:55,130
Mark Zuckerberg等
1163
00:51:55,130 --> 00:51:57,323
經營大型科技公司的大鱷
1164
00:51:58,330 --> 00:52:00,730
他們總像經濟格局的一部分
1165
1166
00:52:00,730 --> 00:52:02,510
政治家來了又走
1167
00:52:02,510 --> 00:52:04,270
但這些人永遠都在
1168
00:52:04,270 --> 00:52:07,340
在中國，即使如馬雲般的重要人物
1169
00:52:07,340 --> 00:52:09,030
亦從非經濟格局的一部分
1170
00:52:09,030 --> 00:52:10,583
也許我們可以從Austan你開始
1171
1172
00:52:12,630 --> 00:52:14,640
你覺得美國對這些事情的監管如何？
1173
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:16,360
我知道這是你已經思考過的問題
1174
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:18,160
而問題也對即將上任的管治團隊非常重要
1175
00:52:20,660 --> 00:52:25,660
這與我剛才舉的中國例子不同
1176
00:52:25,950 --> 00:52:28,850
美國也不像已經想通問題
1177
1178
00:52:31,660 --> 00:52:33,880
我們顯然面臨著巨大的科技力量
1179
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:36,054
這些力量為個人和公司創造了財富
1180
00:52:36,054 --> 00:52:38,940
帶来至少自從19世紀末
1181
00:52:38,940 --> 00:52:42,490
或強盜男爵時代以來
1182
00:52:42,490 --> 00:52:50,822
在美國前所未見的力量
1183
1184
1185
00:52:50,822 --> 00:52:54,840
因此我認為美國的政治團體
1186
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:59,840
將不得不作出公共決定
1187
00:53:00,850 --> 00:53:08,451
決定應讓大型科技公司掌握多少權力
1188
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:11,880
應否交由政府監管
1189
1190
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,630
抑或應該有更多競爭
1191
00:53:13,630 --> 00:53:14,650
將來會是怎樣？
1192
00:53:14,650 --> 00:53:16,580
我們可能會得知
1193
00:53:16,580 --> 00:53:18,640
我們至少應該觀察
1194
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:21,250
中國人對螞蟻金融的態度
1195
00:53:21,250 --> 00:53:27,000
現在的確感覺他們至少在劃清界線
1196
1197
00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:28,510
說我們只是想
1198
00:53:28,510 --> 00:53:30,330
讓你們所有的科技人員知道
1199
00:53:30,330 --> 00:53:32,723
我們不會容忍這樣的情況
1200
00:53:34,130 --> 00:53:35,510
但與此同時
1201
00:53:35,510 --> 00:53:40,510
這些電子支付系統的市佔率要大得多
1202
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:47,505
其在中國消費金融產業的主導地位
1203
1204
00:53:47,505 --> 00:53:51,954
比在美國任何類似的產業都要強
1205
00:53:51,954 --> 00:53:56,150
我認為這裏有些壓力
1206
00:53:56,150 --> 00:53:58,390
至於氣候變化
1207
00:53:58,390 --> 00:54:01,277
這是你正在思考的另一個問題
1208
00:54:01,277 --> 00:54:07,653
對物種減少和對地球生存危機而言
1209
1210
1211
00:54:08,750 --> 00:54:16,490
我認為美中合作對達致成效至關重要
1212
1213
1214
00:54:16,490 --> 00:54:20,550
從某種程度上說
1215
00:54:20,550 --> 00:54:22,540
最理想的事情就是
1216
00:54:22,540 --> 00:54:27,890
實用經濟能像過去十年那樣繼續下去
1217
1218
00:54:27,890 --> 00:54:31,720
也就是說，可再生能源的成本
1219
00:54:31,720 --> 00:54:34,970
會大幅下降
1220
00:54:34,970 --> 00:54:40,810
以前發達國家不願建造燃煤發電廠
1221
1222
00:54:40,810 --> 00:54:42,370
因為實在太貴了
1223
00:54:42,370 --> 00:54:43,980
部分是因為監管成本
1224
00:54:43,980 --> 00:54:48,930
部分是因為天然氣價格大幅下降
1225
1226
00:54:48,930 --> 00:54:50,190
建燃煤發電廠簡直瘋了
1227
00:54:50,190 --> 00:54:51,560
有了天然氣
1228
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,620
沒人願意考慮買煤
1229
1230
00:54:54,620 --> 00:54:56,430
現在太陽能、風能和其他可再生能源
1231
00:54:56,430 --> 00:54:58,530
變得如此便宜
1232
00:54:58,530 --> 00:55:02,860
以至天然氣不再在考慮之列
1233
00:55:02,860 --> 00:55:05,600
如果成本的確下降這麽多
1234
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:10,600
你絕對會看到中國人說
1235
00:55:13,033 --> 00:55:17,630
最有效、最便宜的經濟增長方式
1236
1237
00:55:17,630 --> 00:55:21,540
就是減少碳污染
1238
00:55:21,540 --> 00:55:25,580
他們會欣然接受，並看似跟我們合作
1239
1240
00:55:25,580 --> 00:55:30,580
問題是，幾年前
1241
00:55:30,670 --> 00:55:35,930
我獲邀到中國作關於城市化的演講
1242
1243
00:55:35,930 --> 00:55:40,930
當時其剛成為城市人口為主的國家
1244
00:55:41,390 --> 00:55:44,490
那是一件大事
1245
00:55:44,490 --> 00:55:48,410
因為其時大家對中國的印象
1246
00:55:48,410 --> 00:55:51,583
絕對不是一個城鎮國家
1247
00:55:53,140 --> 00:55:57,390
問題是，中國城市化從美國城市化中
1248
1249
00:55:57,390 --> 00:55:59,120
吸取了什麽教訓？
1250
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:04,120
我當時說中國現在高度城市化
1251
00:56:04,610 --> 00:56:06,490
而且只會越來越城市化
1252
00:56:06,490 --> 00:56:07,517
如果以世界上其他富裕國家為指標
1253
00:56:07,517 --> 00:56:12,520
每個富裕國家都由城市地區主導
1254
1255
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:13,700
因為我們於城鎮相鄰生活時
1256
00:56:13,700 --> 00:56:16,040
往往更有生產力
1257
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:19,740
美國已經完全去中心化
1258
00:56:19,740 --> 00:56:22,950
我們一方面做得很好，一方面做得很差
1259
00:56:22,950 --> 00:56:26,950
遭受災難性的失敗，亦有巨大的成功
1260
1261
00:56:26,950 --> 00:56:31,950
面臨一系列城市問題
1262
00:56:32,180 --> 00:56:35,900
比如交通將是個問題
1263
00:56:35,900 --> 00:56:38,790
住屋和樓價是個問題
1264
00:56:38,790 --> 00:56:41,340
醫療保健和分娩又是個問題
1265
00:56:41,340 --> 00:56:43,030
其中一個長年存在的問題
1266
00:56:43,030 --> 00:56:45,800
是城市污染
1267
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:50,230
美國經歷了快速發展的階段
1268
1269
00:56:50,230 --> 00:56:52,380
我們有大規模的城市污染
1270
00:56:52,380 --> 00:56:54,320
隨著我們變得越來越富裕
1271
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:59,530
政治團體決定我們可以減緩經濟增長
1272
1273
00:56:59,530 --> 00:57:02,300
因為我們希望能夠更自由地呼吸
1274
00:57:02,300 --> 00:57:05,440
我認為這種環境⋯
1275
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:09,484
中國現在變得足夠富裕，進程肉眼可見
1276
1277
00:57:09,484 --> 00:57:11,360
因此正降減其增長速度
1278
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:12,760
「我們得降減增長速度
1279
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:14,570
我們要有環境法規
1280
00:57:14,570 --> 00:57:17,100
會有防污染條例。」
1281
00:57:17,100 --> 00:57:20,010
我認為隨著這種情況再次發生
1282
00:57:20,010 --> 00:57:22,860
我們對氣候問題的興趣
1283
00:57:22,860 --> 00:57:24,683
亦會漸趨相似
1284
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:29,213
- 說得太好了
1285
1286
00:57:29,213 --> 00:57:30,683
大利，你對此怎麼看
1287
00:57:30,683 --> 00:57:34,110
你怎麼看中美兩國都有能力
1288
00:57:34,110 --> 00:57:36,820
得到這些令人難以置信的顛覆性科技
1289
00:57:36,820 --> 00:57:41,820
以及我們共同面對的生存危機？
1290
00:57:41,940 --> 00:57:45,120
我認為值得注意的是
1291
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:45,953
10年前，或3年前
1292
00:57:45,953 --> 00:57:48,810
大多數人傾向於認為中國的產品
1293
00:57:48,810 --> 00:57:54,960
全都複製、借用或竊取自美國
1294
1295
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:59,960
但我認為人們越來越開始看到中國
1296
00:58:00,210 --> 00:58:03,080
如何應對創造新機會的挑戰
1297
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:07,340
看到中國的許多血汗工廠和廉價勞力
1298
1299
00:58:07,340 --> 00:58:10,120
如何推動如太陽能電池板價格下降
1300
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:13,010
以至今天可再生能源變得更負擔得起
1301
00:58:13,010 --> 00:58:16,370
實在很不簡單
1302
00:58:16,370 --> 00:58:21,460
中國沒有Robert Moses
1303
1304
00:58:21,460 --> 00:58:25,880
因此能夠更容易地發展高速鐵路
1305
1306
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:31,180
同時中國繞過了VISA和萬事達卡
1307
1308
00:58:31,180 --> 00:58:38,001
一口氣讓大多數人轉向了電子支付
1309
1310
00:58:38,001 --> 00:58:42,540
手機亦同樣，不再用固網電話
1311
00:58:42,540 --> 00:58:48,480
這種經歷令中國人更勇於思考
1312
1313
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:51,490
勇於創新，以至不用再⋯
1314
00:58:51,490 --> 00:58:52,370
他們仍然會借鑒
1315
00:58:52,370 --> 00:58:55,627
仍然會向矽谷借鑒學習
1316
1317
00:58:55,627 --> 00:58:58,650
但與此同時，隨著時間推移
1318
1319
00:58:58,650 --> 00:59:01,220
許多中國人的經驗將變得更加重要
1320
00:59:01,220 --> 00:59:02,410
我認為從這個意義上來說
1321
00:59:02,410 --> 00:59:06,290
這正是中國領導層
1322
00:59:06,290 --> 00:59:09,640
在追求完全現代化的目標
1323
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:11,520
並且開始規劃中國創新
1324
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:14,950
特別是中國投資的未來路向時
1325
00:59:14,950 --> 00:59:18,610
將會引而為傲的一點
1326
00:59:18,610 --> 00:59:21,360
當然，借鑒可能會有災難性後果
1327
1328
00:59:22,990 --> 00:59:25,950
我認為世界各地
1329
00:59:25,950 --> 00:59:28,720
必須首先意識到中國在做什麽
1330
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:30,770
而中國在借鑒學習的同時
1331
00:59:30,770 --> 00:59:33,790
其所做的事情也會有所影響
1332
00:59:33,790 --> 00:59:36,190
因為中國投資者也在非洲
1333
00:59:36,190 --> 00:59:39,270
和其他地方進行大量投資
1334
00:59:39,270 --> 00:59:41,310
所以都會有影響力
1335
00:59:41,310 --> 00:59:44,120
因此我認為且同意
1336
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:47,100
在某些方面，中國固然正在行動
1337
00:59:47,100 --> 00:59:50,330
獨立應對碳問題
1338
00:59:50,330 --> 00:59:52,370
但全球共同行動
1339
00:59:52,370 --> 00:59:54,680
比只依靠中國或美國好
1340
00:59:54,680 --> 00:59:56,760
同樣，在其他問題上
1341
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:59,840
中國當然希望在制定標準方面
1342
00:59:59,840 --> 01:00:04,550
如在6G和7G的議題上擔當重要角色
1343
1344
01:00:04,550 --> 01:00:06,123
在這個方面，我們最好振作精神應對
1345
01:00:07,540 --> 01:00:10,540
- 謝謝，謝謝你們精彩的對話
1346
01:00:10,540 --> 01:00:14,630
不失大家所望
1347
01:00:14,630 --> 01:00:16,950
兩位傑出人才依循芝加哥大學的傳統
1348
01:00:16,950 --> 01:00:20,300
以事實為基礎發言，沒有過多抽象理論
1349
01:00:20,300 --> 01:00:22,170
令大家獲益良多
1350
01:00:22,170 --> 01:00:23,680
謝謝大家
1351
01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:26,970
謝謝兩位設想全面的評論
1352
01:00:26,970 --> 01:00:30,120
祝大家今天能好好休息
1353
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:31,300
各位晚安
1354
01:00:31,300 --> 01:00:33,284
- 謝謝Josh的總結
1355
01:00:33,284 --> 01:00:34,284
- 謝謝
Professor Diamond has won the 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences. He is celebrated for his groundbreaking research on banks and financial crises.
Douglas W. Diamond Wins Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences
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COVID-19 Thought Leadership Digest: July 8
