COVID-19 Thought Leadership Digest: October 14, 2020

In today's newsletter, we bring you the latest research updates on the pandemic from our faculty, including: the impact of income shocks on Black and Hispanic families, how mutual fund managers have fared, and long-term changes to business travel. You'll also find a new community story about an alumnus who's tackling a potential poll worker shortage, as well as the next virtual event in our Road to Economic Recovery series. Get more details below.

COVID-19 Research and Insights from Chicago Booth Review

Why was there a Treasury bond crisis amid the COVID-19 stock market crash?
The ominous market behavior reflected a new form of inefficiency introduced as a safety measure after the 2008–09 financial crisis, according to Zhiguo He and Stefan Nagel.

CARES unemployment payments replaced lost wages, and then some
Three-quarters of US workers received more from unemployment insurance under CARES than they did from wages alone when they were working, Pascal Noel and Joseph S. Vavra find.

Income shocks hit Black and Hispanic families twice as much
These new research findings from Pascal Noel have significance for the COVID-19 pandemic, as unemployment is particularly acute among Black and Hispanic workers.

Mutual fund managers didn't shine during the COVID-19 crisis
A large majority of actively managed funds lagged behind their respective benchmark indexes in the early months of the pandemic, Lubos Pastor and PhD candidate M. Blair Vorsatz find.

Businesses say their travel expenditures won't return to pre-COVID-19 levels
Results from a survey by Steven J. Davis and coauthors suggest long-term changes to business travel.

Follow CBR's COVID-19 page and social channels for the latest insights from Booth faculty.

Select Thought Leadership in the Media

As US unemployment soared, Germany's barely budged. Is America's safety net enough?
Oct. 13 | The Washington Post
"The pandemic was like a meteor striking. You can't go back to the world as it was. Some jobs will be made extinct," said Randall Kroszner.

Trump, Congress pursue second round of $1,200 stimulus checks in effort to revive huge federal aid program
Oct. 9 | The Washington Post
Both Constantine Yannelis and Michael Weber argue that targeting payments to households with lower income would make stimulus checks more impactful.

Liz Weston: Suddenly retired? Here's what to do next
Oct. 8 | Associated Press
The share of unemployed people who called themselves "retired" increased from 53 percent in January to 60 percent in April, according to a study coauthored by Michael Weber.

Coronavirus stimulus: Failed negotiations would force Americans 'to make devastating cuts,' experts warn
Oct. 8 | On the Move - Yahoo! Finance
"If we don't get that rescue and relief, I think the economy's absolutely going to stall out," Austan Goolsbee says.

The pandemic prompted a record decline in GDP. A large part of private equity portfolios had no symptoms.
Oct. 7 | Institutional Investor
A large portion of private equity portfolios seemed asymptomatic following the sharp economic downturn from COVID-19, according to research coauthored by Steven Kaplan.

Anxious for a lifeline, the US economy is left to sink or swim
Oct. 7 | The New York Times
"The gains that have been built up over time are fragile," says Raghuram G. Rajan. "If we don’t try to protect those gains, it will take a longer time, a really long time to come back."

To stay up-to-date with media mentions, follow Booth's In the News page and social channels.

COVID-19 Content across Campus

Electing to innovate
As COVID-19 threatened a potential shortage of poll workers, Avi Stopper, ’06, launched the non-partisan project Poll Hero in service of the democratic process.

Students and small businesses work together to address challenges, form strategies for growth
Through the Polsky Small Business Growth program, Booth and UChicago students served 21 businesses on the South and West Side this summer that were hit hard by the pandemic.

Oct 12th Economic Outlook survey
IGM and FiveThirtyEight shared results from round 10 of their survey series featuring economists' insights on the recovery.

Poll: Economic recovery
In a poll from IGM, Marianne Bertrand, Austan Goolsbee, Steven Kaplan, Richard Thaler, and other economists weighed in on the impact of lockdown policies.

Video: Critical conversations with economists
The Becker Friedman Institute posted a recording of the latest event in its series on COVID-19 stimulus programs in China and the US, featuring Zhiguo He and Chang-Tai Hsieh.

How can authorities control coronavirus without killing the economy?
Research from current PhD student Benedict Guttman-Kenney evaluates the effectiveness of local lockdowns in the UK using a new source of real-time, consumption data.

VIRTUAL EVENTS

The Road to Economic Recovery: Consumers' response to COVID-19
Tuesday, Oct. 27, Noon CT
In a special event cosponsored by the Kilts Center for Marketing, Ann Mukherjee, AB ’87, MBA ’94, and Brian Niccol, ’03, will discuss how consumer behavior has changed during the pandemic. Professor Jean-Pierre Dubé will moderate.