The solution is thinking in a more mathematical way, though it’s a method in which we don’t tend to excel. But I’d argue that it’s especially important during the coronavirus outbreak, when our coherent, simple narratives blind us to the massive, intricate ramifications of the dynamic epidemic system.
Luckily, we can combine the two ways of thinking to let logic guide our narratives. One exercise that can help is to conduct a worst-case, in-hindsight simulation. Imagine that the enterprise you are concerned with fails dramatically. Then ask yourself, how did that happen? What story would have the disaster as its conclusion?
An hour spent on this exercise is sure to make your projections more realistic and your reactions to obstacles, if they arise, more constructive. A good planner may think up four or more of these scenarios to ensure that before going forward, her bases are covered.
A story about overcoming adversity creates a strong, helpful narrative to build on going forward, and we all love a good story. But to plan effectively for the future, we need to anticipate more than one future story.
Reid Hastie is the Ralph and Dorothy Keller distinguished service professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.
This column is part of the Chicago Booth Insights series, a partnership with Crain’s Chicago Business, in which Booth faculty offer advice for small businesses and entrepreneurs on the basis of their research.