Edmon de Haro
The euro’s first quarter century has been eventful. Since it debuted on January 1, 1999, the currency has transitioned from an electronic to a physical one, expanded from 11 to 20 countries, stared down existential crises, and weathered many smaller challenges. But what has it meant for Europe? Has it boosted economic growth for the countries that use it? Has it hobbled the ability of member states to respond to their own individual economic issues? To explore these questions, Chicago Booth’s Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets polled its European panel of economic experts.
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Paris School of Economics
“A counterfactual exercise is always difficult. Nevertheless, there is serious empirical evidence of the positive impact of the single market, although not all has been reaped yet (services).”
Response: Agree
Christian Leuz, Chicago Booth
“Evidence for overall economic growth in euro-adopting countries is decidedly mixed, though the effects differ across countries. However, evidence for the growth effect of EU integration is generally positive. Perhaps the success of the euro should be judged on price stability?”
Response: Uncertain
John Vickers, Oxford
“The euro has been positive for growth in important respects, but 2010–12 showed the risks of monetary union without more fiscal integration.”
Response: Uncertain
Patrick Honohan, Trinity College Dublin
“Pre-euro national monetary policies were often destabilizing.”
Response: Disagree
Lubos Pastor, Chicago Booth
“With common monetary policy and EU-wide constraints on fiscal policy, there aren’t many country-specific policies left to offset country-specific shocks. One remaining tool is macroprudential policy, but its potency is limited.”
Response: Agree
Hélène Rey, London Business School
“Inability to depreciate versus higher resilience due to better monetary and financial stability frameworks.”
Response: Uncertain
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