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Capitalisn’t: Can Democracy Coexist with Big Tech?Forcing People to Vote Doesn’t Change the Outcome
- By
- August 10, 2016
- CBR - Public Policy
More than 20 countries have laws that require citizens to vote in elections or face a fine or community service. Several other countries, and the US state of Georgia, have implemented similar laws in the past. But what effect do such rules have on election outcomes?
In Austria, where compulsory voting was implemented and repealed in different states at various times, the rule didn’t significantly change much, according to a study by Mitchell Hoffman of the University of Toronto and Gianmarco León of Pompeu Fabra University and Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, and María Lombardi (a PhD candidate) of Pompeu Fabra University.
The researchers wanted to find out what happens when marginalized and apathetic voters come out to vote. Turnout increased: from 1949 to 2010, compulsory voting in Austria increased turnout from 80 percent to 90 percent in affected areas. The exact increase varied based on the type of election: 7 percent in parliamentary elections, 8 percent in state races, and 9 percent in presidential ballots.
Democracy now
Countries that have or have had some form of compulsory-voting law at the regional or national level (Source: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance)
Compulsory voting increased turnout even when the fines for disobeying the law were not high enough to be a real deterrent, and tended to attract voters who were uninformed, reporting low interest in politics and no party affiliation. Such voters were more likely to be women, less educated, and low income.
The researchers speculated that increasing the number of poorer or less-educated voters could have led to increased spending on social programs, but the data didn’t bear that out. They find no significant difference in government spending once citizens were compelled to vote.
In countries where voter turnout is already high, forcing more citizens to vote wouldn’t move the needle much, if at all, in terms of turnout or outcome, the researchers conclude. That may be different in countries with low turnout, such as the United States, they say, where turnout in the presidential election was a dismal 55 percent in 2012. In the US, if nonvoters were to turn out to cast their ballots, they could easily swing an election.
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