Predictable Downturns
Carter Davis, Finance PhD student
Eugene Fama stated in his Nobel Prize lecture that “there is no statistically reliable evidence that expected stock returns are sometimes negative” (2013). However, various theoretical models imply that expected stock returns are sometimes negative. This paper provides evidence that expected excess aggregate stock market returns are sometimes negative, and that portfolios composed of the most liquid stocks have predictable downturns as well. This paper presents a forecasting model that relies exclusively on ex-ante information to predict stock market downturns only when the day-prior confidence of a downturn is relatively high, and shows that the average excess return on days which are predicted to be downturns by the forecasting model is -13.9 basis points. Volatility and classic factor return variables alone are sufficient to predict downturns in the sample and are the most powerful downturn predictors. A market timing portfolio using these ex-ante predictions generates a risk- djusted return of 3.5 basis points per day, annualized to an average 8.8% risk-adjusted return.